Trader consensus reflects 96.3% implied probability on "No" due to the absence of any verified Iranian sabotage of undersea internet cables despite repeated threats since late March amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which escalated with Strait of Hormuz closures and Red Sea disruptions. Cables like FALCON, SEA-ME-WE 6, and 2Africa Pearls remain operational, with operators activating rerouting and maintenance delays attributed to hostilities rather than deliberate cuts. Heightened naval patrols by US, UK, and allied forces, coupled with Iran's reliance on the same infrastructure for its connectivity, deter execution, as deliberate action risks severe retaliation and mutual digital isolation. With just 11 days until resolution, only a sudden escalation—such as unattributed proxy strikes by Houthis or IRGC covert operations—could shift odds, though traders price these as low-probability amid de-escalation signals.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendiİran 30 Nisan'a kadar denizaltı internet kablolarını sabote edecek mi?
İran 30 Nisan'a kadar denizaltı internet kablolarını sabote edecek mi?
Evet
$97,158 Hac.
$97,158 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Evet
$97,158 Hac.
$97,158 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 96.3% implied probability on "No" due to the absence of any verified Iranian sabotage of undersea internet cables despite repeated threats since late March amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which escalated with Strait of Hormuz closures and Red Sea disruptions. Cables like FALCON, SEA-ME-WE 6, and 2Africa Pearls remain operational, with operators activating rerouting and maintenance delays attributed to hostilities rather than deliberate cuts. Heightened naval patrols by US, UK, and allied forces, coupled with Iran's reliance on the same infrastructure for its connectivity, deter execution, as deliberate action risks severe retaliation and mutual digital isolation. With just 11 days until resolution, only a sudden escalation—such as unattributed proxy strikes by Houthis or IRGC covert operations—could shift odds, though traders price these as low-probability amid de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Hacim
$97,158Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 96.3% implied probability on "No" due to the absence of any verified Iranian sabotage of undersea internet cables despite repeated threats since late March amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which escalated with Strait of Hormuz closures and Red Sea disruptions. Cables like FALCON, SEA-ME-WE 6, and 2Africa Pearls remain operational, with operators activating rerouting and maintenance delays attributed to hostilities rather than deliberate cuts. Heightened naval patrols by US, UK, and allied forces, coupled with Iran's reliance on the same infrastructure for its connectivity, deter execution, as deliberate action risks severe retaliation and mutual digital isolation. With just 11 days until resolution, only a sudden escalation—such as unattributed proxy strikes by Houthis or IRGC covert operations—could shift odds, though traders price these as low-probability amid de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$97,158Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 96.3% implied probability on "No" due to the absence of any verified Iranian sabotage of undersea internet cables despite repeated threats since late March amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which escalated with Strait of Hormuz closures and Red Sea disruptions. Cables like FALCON, SEA-ME-WE 6, and 2Africa Pearls remain operational, with operators activating rerouting and maintenance delays attributed to hostilities rather than deliberate cuts. Heightened naval patrols by US, UK, and allied forces, coupled with Iran's reliance on the same infrastructure for its connectivity, deter execution, as deliberate action risks severe retaliation and mutual digital isolation. With just 11 days until resolution, only a sudden escalation—such as unattributed proxy strikes by Houthis or IRGC covert operations—could shift odds, though traders price these as low-probability amid de-escalation signals.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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