Trader consensus implies a mere 6.5% chance of a direct US-China military clash before 2027, anchored by the March 2026 US intelligence community's Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks commitment to a Taiwan invasion by that deadline, citing economic deterrents, amphibious assault challenges, and uneven PLA modernization. Recent PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait, including AI-enabled swarm simulations as of early April, emphasize capability-building without kinetic US engagement. Diplomatic postures persist, with a top US diplomat on April 12 urging China to abandon threats against Taiwan, while no escalatory incidents like airstrikes or blockades have materialized in the past 30 days. Miscalculation in the South China Sea remains a tail risk, but structural barriers sustain the high "No" pricing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$79,941 Hac.
$79,941 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$79,941 Hac.
$79,941 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a mere 6.5% chance of a direct US-China military clash before 2027, anchored by the March 2026 US intelligence community's Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks commitment to a Taiwan invasion by that deadline, citing economic deterrents, amphibious assault challenges, and uneven PLA modernization. Recent PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait, including AI-enabled swarm simulations as of early April, emphasize capability-building without kinetic US engagement. Diplomatic postures persist, with a top US diplomat on April 12 urging China to abandon threats against Taiwan, while no escalatory incidents like airstrikes or blockades have materialized in the past 30 days. Miscalculation in the South China Sea remains a tail risk, but structural barriers sustain the high "No" pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Hacim
$79,941Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a mere 6.5% chance of a direct US-China military clash before 2027, anchored by the March 2026 US intelligence community's Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks commitment to a Taiwan invasion by that deadline, citing economic deterrents, amphibious assault challenges, and uneven PLA modernization. Recent PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait, including AI-enabled swarm simulations as of early April, emphasize capability-building without kinetic US engagement. Diplomatic postures persist, with a top US diplomat on April 12 urging China to abandon threats against Taiwan, while no escalatory incidents like airstrikes or blockades have materialized in the past 30 days. Miscalculation in the South China Sea remains a tail risk, but structural barriers sustain the high "No" pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$79,941Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a mere 6.5% chance of a direct US-China military clash before 2027, anchored by the March 2026 US intelligence community's Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks commitment to a Taiwan invasion by that deadline, citing economic deterrents, amphibious assault challenges, and uneven PLA modernization. Recent PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait, including AI-enabled swarm simulations as of early April, emphasize capability-building without kinetic US engagement. Diplomatic postures persist, with a top US diplomat on April 12 urging China to abandon threats against Taiwan, while no escalatory incidents like airstrikes or blockades have materialized in the past 30 days. Miscalculation in the South China Sea remains a tail risk, but structural barriers sustain the high "No" pricing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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