Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 reflects sustained gray-zone tensions in the South China Sea without escalation to armed conflict, despite recent provocations at Scarborough Shoal. In late March 2026, Chinese coast guard vessels, maritime militia, and a PLA Navy warship harassed Filipino fishing boats and attempted to ram Philippine ships, prompting Manila's rejection of Beijing's expansive maritime claims on March 16. However, formal bilateral talks resumed on March 27 after over a year, signaling mutual restraint amid US-Philippines joint patrols and ASEAN-China diplomacy. Ongoing incidents like new Chinese barriers and patrols in April have not crossed into live-fire exchanges, aligning with historical patterns of de-escalation to avoid broader war risks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$253,722 Hac.
$253,722 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$253,722 Hac.
$253,722 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 reflects sustained gray-zone tensions in the South China Sea without escalation to armed conflict, despite recent provocations at Scarborough Shoal. In late March 2026, Chinese coast guard vessels, maritime militia, and a PLA Navy warship harassed Filipino fishing boats and attempted to ram Philippine ships, prompting Manila's rejection of Beijing's expansive maritime claims on March 16. However, formal bilateral talks resumed on March 27 after over a year, signaling mutual restraint amid US-Philippines joint patrols and ASEAN-China diplomacy. Ongoing incidents like new Chinese barriers and patrols in April have not crossed into live-fire exchanges, aligning with historical patterns of de-escalation to avoid broader war risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Hacim
$253,722Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 reflects sustained gray-zone tensions in the South China Sea without escalation to armed conflict, despite recent provocations at Scarborough Shoal. In late March 2026, Chinese coast guard vessels, maritime militia, and a PLA Navy warship harassed Filipino fishing boats and attempted to ram Philippine ships, prompting Manila's rejection of Beijing's expansive maritime claims on March 16. However, formal bilateral talks resumed on March 27 after over a year, signaling mutual restraint amid US-Philippines joint patrols and ASEAN-China diplomacy. Ongoing incidents like new Chinese barriers and patrols in April have not crossed into live-fire exchanges, aligning with historical patterns of de-escalation to avoid broader war risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$253,722Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 reflects sustained gray-zone tensions in the South China Sea without escalation to armed conflict, despite recent provocations at Scarborough Shoal. In late March 2026, Chinese coast guard vessels, maritime militia, and a PLA Navy warship harassed Filipino fishing boats and attempted to ram Philippine ships, prompting Manila's rejection of Beijing's expansive maritime claims on March 16. However, formal bilateral talks resumed on March 27 after over a year, signaling mutual restraint amid US-Philippines joint patrols and ASEAN-China diplomacy. Ongoing incidents like new Chinese barriers and patrols in April have not crossed into live-fire exchanges, aligning with historical patterns of de-escalation to avoid broader war risks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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