Russia has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1990 and remains bound by a self-imposed moratorium despite revoking CTBT ratification, with trader consensus pricing low probabilities for near-term detonations amid heightened rhetoric. President Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on resuming tests—in response to U.S. signals under Trump—prompted Foreign Minister Lavrov to confirm ongoing work, but no deadlines or preparations have materialized, keeping short-term odds near zero. Recent activity focused on non-nuclear tests of delivery systems like the Poseidon torpedo and Burevestnik missile in October 2025, plus potential Sarmat ICBM launches this week from Kura range. Escalation risks persist post-New START expiration, with diplomatic statements emphasizing reciprocity if the U.S. tests first.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$1,342,393 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
30 Haziran 2026
2%
30 Eylül 2026
9%
31 Aralık 2026
12%
$1,342,393 Hac.
30 Haziran 2026
$4,269 Hac.
2%
30 Eylül 2026
$1,400 Hac.
9%
31 Aralık 2026
$12,151 Hac.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1990 and remains bound by a self-imposed moratorium despite revoking CTBT ratification, with trader consensus pricing low probabilities for near-term detonations amid heightened rhetoric. President Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on resuming tests—in response to U.S. signals under Trump—prompted Foreign Minister Lavrov to confirm ongoing work, but no deadlines or preparations have materialized, keeping short-term odds near zero. Recent activity focused on non-nuclear tests of delivery systems like the Poseidon torpedo and Burevestnik missile in October 2025, plus potential Sarmat ICBM launches this week from Kura range. Escalation risks persist post-New START expiration, with diplomatic statements emphasizing reciprocity if the U.S. tests first.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Hacim
$1,342,393Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1990 and remains bound by a self-imposed moratorium despite revoking CTBT ratification, with trader consensus pricing low probabilities for near-term detonations amid heightened rhetoric. President Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on resuming tests—in response to U.S. signals under Trump—prompted Foreign Minister Lavrov to confirm ongoing work, but no deadlines or preparations have materialized, keeping short-term odds near zero. Recent activity focused on non-nuclear tests of delivery systems like the Poseidon torpedo and Burevestnik missile in October 2025, plus potential Sarmat ICBM launches this week from Kura range. Escalation risks persist post-New START expiration, with diplomatic statements emphasizing reciprocity if the U.S. tests first.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$1,342,393Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1990 and remains bound by a self-imposed moratorium despite revoking CTBT ratification, with trader consensus pricing low probabilities for near-term detonations amid heightened rhetoric. President Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on resuming tests—in response to U.S. signals under Trump—prompted Foreign Minister Lavrov to confirm ongoing work, but no deadlines or preparations have materialized, keeping short-term odds near zero. Recent activity focused on non-nuclear tests of delivery systems like the Poseidon torpedo and Burevestnik missile in October 2025, plus potential Sarmat ICBM launches this week from Kura range. Escalation risks persist post-New START expiration, with diplomatic statements emphasizing reciprocity if the U.S. tests first.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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