Trader consensus prices a mere 14% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting entrenched technical and political barriers to breaking the voluntary moratorium in place since the last underground explosion in 1992. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with rivals like China and Russia spurred debate, but Department of Energy officials clarified no explosive detonations are planned imminently, citing 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site under NNSA oversight. A March 24, 2026, statement by a top official left open the possibility amid internal deliberations, yet the Stockpile Stewardship Program sustains arsenal reliability without full-scale blasts. Congressional wariness and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms cap near-term odds, with no scheduled tests ahead.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiABD nükleer testi...?
ABD nükleer testi...?
$638,258 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
30 Haziran 2026
1%
30 Eylül 2026
8%
31 Aralık 2026
14%
$638,258 Hac.
30 Haziran 2026
$23,090 Hac.
1%
30 Eylül 2026
$2,096 Hac.
8%
31 Aralık 2026
$2,853 Hac.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a mere 14% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting entrenched technical and political barriers to breaking the voluntary moratorium in place since the last underground explosion in 1992. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with rivals like China and Russia spurred debate, but Department of Energy officials clarified no explosive detonations are planned imminently, citing 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site under NNSA oversight. A March 24, 2026, statement by a top official left open the possibility amid internal deliberations, yet the Stockpile Stewardship Program sustains arsenal reliability without full-scale blasts. Congressional wariness and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms cap near-term odds, with no scheduled tests ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Hacim
$638,258Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a mere 14% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting entrenched technical and political barriers to breaking the voluntary moratorium in place since the last underground explosion in 1992. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with rivals like China and Russia spurred debate, but Department of Energy officials clarified no explosive detonations are planned imminently, citing 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site under NNSA oversight. A March 24, 2026, statement by a top official left open the possibility amid internal deliberations, yet the Stockpile Stewardship Program sustains arsenal reliability without full-scale blasts. Congressional wariness and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms cap near-term odds, with no scheduled tests ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$638,258Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a mere 14% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting entrenched technical and political barriers to breaking the voluntary moratorium in place since the last underground explosion in 1992. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with rivals like China and Russia spurred debate, but Department of Energy officials clarified no explosive detonations are planned imminently, citing 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site under NNSA oversight. A March 24, 2026, statement by a top official left open the possibility amid internal deliberations, yet the Stockpile Stewardship Program sustains arsenal reliability without full-scale blasts. Congressional wariness and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms cap near-term odds, with no scheduled tests ahead.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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