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2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?

Market icon

2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?

Ara 31

Ara 31

Orbán - Macaristan Başbakanı 92%

Starmer - Birleşik Krallık Başbakanı 3.0%

Díaz-Canel - Küba Devlet Başkanı 2.4%

Abbas - Filistin Devlet Başkanı 1.0%

Polymarket

$4,959,948 Hac.

Orbán - Macaristan Başbakanı 92%

Starmer - Birleşik Krallık Başbakanı 3.0%

Díaz-Canel - Küba Devlet Başkanı 2.4%

Abbas - Filistin Devlet Başkanı 1.0%

Polymarket

$4,959,948 Hac.

Orbán - Macaristan Başbakanı

$89,766 Hac.

92%

Starmer - Birleşik Krallık Başbakanı

$646,335 Hac.

3%

Díaz-Canel - Küba Devlet Başkanı

$108,070 Hac.

2%

Abbas - Filistin Devlet Başkanı

$177,436 Hac.

1%

Takaichi - Japonya Başbakanı

$404,081 Hac.

1%

Trump - ABD Başkanı

$285,703 Hac.

1%

Netanyahu - İsrail Başbakanı

$1,067,694 Hac.

<1%

Zelenskyy - Ukrayna Devlet Başkanı

$79,652 Hac.

<1%

Milei - Arjantin Cumhurbaşkanı

$95,624 Hac.

<1%

Macron - Fransa Cumhurbaşkanı

$133,081 Hac.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye Cumhurbaşkanı

$136,534 Hac.

<1%

Putin - Rusya Devlet Başkanı

$413,090 Hac.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brezilya Devlet Başkanı

$120,254 Hac.

<1%

Lecornu - Fransa Başbakanı

$141,099 Hac.

<1%

Sánchez - İspanya Başbakanı

$80,470 Hac.

<1%

Petro - Kolombiya Devlet Başkanı

$97,363 Hac.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Geçici Devlet Başkanı

$77,445 Hac.

<1%

el-Şaraa - Suriye Devlet Başkanı

$123,775 Hac.

<1%

2027'den önce yok

$77,596 Hac.

<1%

Kim - Kuzey Kore'nin Yüce Lideri

$85,839 Hac.

<1%

Xi - ÇKP Genel Sekreteri

$79,310 Hac.

<1%

Albanese - Avustralya Başbakanı

$94,783 Hac.

<1%

Newsom - Kaliforniya Valisi

$161,745 Hac.

<1%

Merz - Almanya Şansölyesi

$72,351 Hac.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Meksika Başkanı

$111,051 Hac.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12 delivered a landslide defeat to incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party, which lost its supermajority to opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza party amid record turnout, prompting Orbán's immediate concession after 16 years in power. Traders reflect this in a 91% implied probability for Orbán as the next listed leader permanently out of office before 2027—defined strictly as replacement beyond any caretaker role, expected with the new National Assembly convening by mid-May and government formation typically taking 40-55 days. No comparable catalysts threaten rivals like Starmer or Díaz-Canel soon, cementing the consensus. Challenges could arise from delayed transition amid disputes or sudden snap elections elsewhere.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$4,959,948
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12 delivered a landslide defeat to incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party, which lost its supermajority to opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza party amid record turnout, prompting Orbán's immediate concession after 16 years in power. Traders reflect this in a 91% implied probability for Orbán as the next listed leader permanently out of office before 2027—defined strictly as replacement beyond any caretaker role, expected with the new National Assembly convening by mid-May and government formation typically taking 40-55 days. No comparable catalysts threaten rivals like Starmer or Díaz-Canel soon, cementing the consensus. Challenges could arise from delayed transition amid disputes or sudden snap elections elsewhere.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$4,959,948
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 25 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 92% ile "Orbán - Macaristan Başbakanı", ardından 3% ile "Starmer - Birleşik Krallık Başbakanı" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 92¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 92% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?" toplam $5 million işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Mar 3, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 25 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?" için mevcut favori 92% ile "Orbán - Macaristan Başbakanı"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 92% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 3% ile "Starmer - Birleşik Krallık Başbakanı"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.