**US-Israel airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz facility on March 2, 2026, have severely damaged enrichment and weaponization sites, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027.** IAEA monitoring detected no radiation increases or material diversions post-strikes, though access to damaged locations remains restricted per its February 2026 safeguards report. Recent de-escalation signals, including Iran's April 8 offer to transfer enriched uranium stocks and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's April 15 call for strict verification in any war-ending deal, further diminish breakout risks. Unverified seismic rumors of tests have been debunked as natural quakes, highlighting enduring technical hurdles, sanctions, and retaliation threats amid ongoing diplomacy.**
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$168,639 Hac.
$168,639 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$168,639 Hac.
$168,639 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**US-Israel airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz facility on March 2, 2026, have severely damaged enrichment and weaponization sites, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027.** IAEA monitoring detected no radiation increases or material diversions post-strikes, though access to damaged locations remains restricted per its February 2026 safeguards report. Recent de-escalation signals, including Iran's April 8 offer to transfer enriched uranium stocks and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's April 15 call for strict verification in any war-ending deal, further diminish breakout risks. Unverified seismic rumors of tests have been debunked as natural quakes, highlighting enduring technical hurdles, sanctions, and retaliation threats amid ongoing diplomacy.**
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Hacim
$168,639Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**US-Israel airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz facility on March 2, 2026, have severely damaged enrichment and weaponization sites, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027.** IAEA monitoring detected no radiation increases or material diversions post-strikes, though access to damaged locations remains restricted per its February 2026 safeguards report. Recent de-escalation signals, including Iran's April 8 offer to transfer enriched uranium stocks and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's April 15 call for strict verification in any war-ending deal, further diminish breakout risks. Unverified seismic rumors of tests have been debunked as natural quakes, highlighting enduring technical hurdles, sanctions, and retaliation threats amid ongoing diplomacy.**
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$168,639Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US-Israel airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz facility on March 2, 2026, have severely damaged enrichment and weaponization sites, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% against a nuclear test before 2027.** IAEA monitoring detected no radiation increases or material diversions post-strikes, though access to damaged locations remains restricted per its February 2026 safeguards report. Recent de-escalation signals, including Iran's April 8 offer to transfer enriched uranium stocks and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's April 15 call for strict verification in any war-ending deal, further diminish breakout risks. Unverified seismic rumors of tests have been debunked as natural quakes, highlighting enduring technical hurdles, sanctions, and retaliation threats amid ongoing diplomacy.**
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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