Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi15 Nisan'da San Francisco'daki en yüksek sıcaklık?
15 Nisan'da San Francisco'daki en yüksek sıcaklık?
62-63°F 100.0%
47°F veya altında <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$61,980 Hac.
$61,980 Hac.
15 Nis 2026
47°F veya altında
Hayır
48-49°F
Hayır
50-51°F
Hayır
52-53°F
Hayır
54-55°F
Hayır
56-57°F
Hayır
58-59°F
Hayır
60-61°F
Hayır
62-63°F
Evet
64-65°F
Hayır
66°F veya daha yüksek
Hayır
62-63°F 100.0%
47°F veya altında <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$61,980 Hac.
$61,980 Hac.
15 Nis 2026
47°F veya altında
$1,764 Hac.
Hayır
48-49°F
$2,686 Hac.
Hayır
50-51°F
$2,912 Hac.
Hayır
52-53°F
$3,850 Hac.
Hayır
54-55°F
$4,361 Hac.
Hayır
56-57°F
$6,776 Hac.
Hayır
58-59°F
$6,800 Hac.
Hayır
60-61°F
$10,098 Hac.
Hayır
62-63°F
$8,143 Hac.
Evet
64-65°F
$7,643 Hac.
Hayır
66°F veya daha yüksek
$6,947 Hac.
Hayır
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Hacim
$61,980Bitiş Tarihi
15 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sonuç önerildi: Hayır
İtiraz yok
Kesin sonuç: Hayır
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$61,980Bitiş Tarihi
15 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sonuç önerildi: Hayır
İtiraz yok
Kesin sonuç: Hayır
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
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