Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability for California's 38th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. This open race stems from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted incumbent Rep. Linda Sánchez (D) to CA-41, while preserving the district's Democratic lean—evident in Sánchez's 60-40 general election win in 2024 and 55-42 presidential margin. A crowded Democratic primary field features well-funded frontrunners Hilda Solis (state party-endorsed, $398,000 cash on hand) and Monica Sánchez (backed by outgoing Rep. Sánchez), with sole Republican Pedro Casas trailing; the June 2 top-two primary likely advances two Democrats to the November 3 general. Recent filings past the March 6 deadline and intra-party endorsements underscore Democratic dominance, leaving slim upset paths via a GOP primary surprise, nominee scandal, or national Republican wave.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiCA -38 Ev Seçimi Kazananı
CA -38 Ev Seçimi Kazananı
$48,885 Hac.
$48,885 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Demokrat Parti
93%
Cumhuriyetçi Parti
7%
$48,885 Hac.
$48,885 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Demokrat Parti
$23,059 Hac.
93%
Cumhuriyetçi Parti
$25,827 Hac.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability for California's 38th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. This open race stems from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted incumbent Rep. Linda Sánchez (D) to CA-41, while preserving the district's Democratic lean—evident in Sánchez's 60-40 general election win in 2024 and 55-42 presidential margin. A crowded Democratic primary field features well-funded frontrunners Hilda Solis (state party-endorsed, $398,000 cash on hand) and Monica Sánchez (backed by outgoing Rep. Sánchez), with sole Republican Pedro Casas trailing; the June 2 top-two primary likely advances two Democrats to the November 3 general. Recent filings past the March 6 deadline and intra-party endorsements underscore Democratic dominance, leaving slim upset paths via a GOP primary surprise, nominee scandal, or national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Hacim
$48,885Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability for California's 38th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. This open race stems from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted incumbent Rep. Linda Sánchez (D) to CA-41, while preserving the district's Democratic lean—evident in Sánchez's 60-40 general election win in 2024 and 55-42 presidential margin. A crowded Democratic primary field features well-funded frontrunners Hilda Solis (state party-endorsed, $398,000 cash on hand) and Monica Sánchez (backed by outgoing Rep. Sánchez), with sole Republican Pedro Casas trailing; the June 2 top-two primary likely advances two Democrats to the November 3 general. Recent filings past the March 6 deadline and intra-party endorsements underscore Democratic dominance, leaving slim upset paths via a GOP primary surprise, nominee scandal, or national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Hacim
$48,885Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability for California's 38th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. This open race stems from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted incumbent Rep. Linda Sánchez (D) to CA-41, while preserving the district's Democratic lean—evident in Sánchez's 60-40 general election win in 2024 and 55-42 presidential margin. A crowded Democratic primary field features well-funded frontrunners Hilda Solis (state party-endorsed, $398,000 cash on hand) and Monica Sánchez (backed by outgoing Rep. Sánchez), with sole Republican Pedro Casas trailing; the June 2 top-two primary likely advances two Democrats to the November 3 general. Recent filings past the March 6 deadline and intra-party endorsements underscore Democratic dominance, leaving slim upset paths via a GOP primary surprise, nominee scandal, or national Republican wave.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular