Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton's commanding position in the D+4 Arizona 4th Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 86.5%, reflecting his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% and unopposed primary then. Recent filings by the April 6 deadline confirmed a low-funded progressive challenger, Kai Newkirk ($13,500 cash on hand versus Stanton's $1.8 million), minimizing Democratic primary upset risk on August 21, while the Republican primary features a fragmented field including Zuhdi Jasser ($299,000 cash) and weaker contenders, echoing past GOP struggles. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, with national midterm dynamics unlikely to flip this battleground-leaning district absent major shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiAZ -04 Ev Seçimi Kazananı
AZ -04 Ev Seçimi Kazananı
$10,582 Hac.
$10,582 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Demokrat Parti
87%
Cumhuriyetçi Parti
12%
$10,582 Hac.
$10,582 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Demokrat Parti
$9,225 Hac.
87%
Cumhuriyetçi Parti
$1,357 Hac.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton's commanding position in the D+4 Arizona 4th Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 86.5%, reflecting his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% and unopposed primary then. Recent filings by the April 6 deadline confirmed a low-funded progressive challenger, Kai Newkirk ($13,500 cash on hand versus Stanton's $1.8 million), minimizing Democratic primary upset risk on August 21, while the Republican primary features a fragmented field including Zuhdi Jasser ($299,000 cash) and weaker contenders, echoing past GOP struggles. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, with national midterm dynamics unlikely to flip this battleground-leaning district absent major shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Hacim
$10,582Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton's commanding position in the D+4 Arizona 4th Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 86.5%, reflecting his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% and unopposed primary then. Recent filings by the April 6 deadline confirmed a low-funded progressive challenger, Kai Newkirk ($13,500 cash on hand versus Stanton's $1.8 million), minimizing Democratic primary upset risk on August 21, while the Republican primary features a fragmented field including Zuhdi Jasser ($299,000 cash) and weaker contenders, echoing past GOP struggles. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, with national midterm dynamics unlikely to flip this battleground-leaning district absent major shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Hacim
$10,582Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton's commanding position in the D+4 Arizona 4th Congressional District drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 86.5%, reflecting his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% and unopposed primary then. Recent filings by the April 6 deadline confirmed a low-funded progressive challenger, Kai Newkirk ($13,500 cash on hand versus Stanton's $1.8 million), minimizing Democratic primary upset risk on August 21, while the Republican primary features a fragmented field including Zuhdi Jasser ($299,000 cash) and weaker contenders, echoing past GOP struggles. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, with national midterm dynamics unlikely to flip this battleground-leaning district absent major shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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