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icon for US x Iran ceasefire before August?
Heopolitika·US - Iranian

US x Iran ceasefire before August?

icon for US x Iran ceasefire before August?
Heopolitika·US - Iranian

US x Iran ceasefire before August?

<1% tsansa
Polymarket

$240,794 Vol.

<1% tsansa
Polymarket

$240,794 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between US and Iran, between June 21 and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET Unilateral statements from either Iran or US that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, US, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between US and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from US and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and US has been reached will suffice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between US and Iran, between June 21 and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET

Unilateral statements from either Iran or US that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, US, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Ceasefire agreements between US and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from US and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and US has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$240,794
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2025
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 21, 2025, 10:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between US and Iran, between June 21 and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET Unilateral statements from either Iran or US that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, US, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between US and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from US and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and US has been reached will suffice.

Na-propose ang outcome: No

Walang dispute

Pinal na outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between US and Iran, between June 21 and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET Unilateral statements from either Iran or US that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, US, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between US and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from US and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and US has been reached will suffice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between US and Iran, between June 21 and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET

Unilateral statements from either Iran or US that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, US, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Ceasefire agreements between US and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from US and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and US has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$240,794
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2025
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 21, 2025, 10:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between US and Iran, between June 21 and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET Unilateral statements from either Iran or US that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, US, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between US and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from US and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and US has been reached will suffice.

Na-propose ang outcome: No

Walang dispute

Pinal na outcome: No

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "US x Iran ceasefire before August? " ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 0% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 0¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 0% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "US x Iran ceasefire before August? " ay naka-generate ng $240.8K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jun 22, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "US x Iran ceasefire before August? ," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "US x Iran ceasefire before August? " ay 0% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 0% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "US x Iran ceasefire before August? " ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.