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Politika·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner
Politika·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

Christian Menefee 90.5%

Al Green 9.0%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$27,383 Vol.

Christian Menefee 90.5%

Al Green 9.0%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Polymarket

$27,383 Vol.

Christian Menefee

$16,494 Vol.

91%

Al Green

$4,637 Vol.

9%

Gretchen Brown

$3,536 Vol.

<1%

Amanda Edwards

$2,716 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Christian Menefee's commanding 91% implied probability in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff stems from his recent victory in a January 2026 special election for the seat following Sylvester Turner's death, granting short-term incumbency advantage in the redrawn Houston-based district. Recent polls, including a New York Times average showing Menefee ahead 41%-35% over Al Green, reinforce trader consensus amid endorsements like Rep. Jasmine Crockett's and pro-Menefee super PAC ads. Heated debates this week highlighted Green's attacks on Menefee's early missed votes, but no shift in surveys. With the May 26 runoff approaching, a Green surge via base mobilization, debate momentum, or late scandals could narrow the gap in this Black-majority stronghold.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$27,383
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 26, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Christian Menefee's commanding 91% implied probability in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff stems from his recent victory in a January 2026 special election for the seat following Sylvester Turner's death, granting short-term incumbency advantage in the redrawn Houston-based district. Recent polls, including a New York Times average showing Menefee ahead 41%-35% over Al Green, reinforce trader consensus amid endorsements like Rep. Jasmine Crockett's and pro-Menefee super PAC ads. Heated debates this week highlighted Green's attacks on Menefee's early missed votes, but no shift in surveys. With the May 26 runoff approaching, a Green surge via base mobilization, debate momentum, or late scandals could narrow the gap in this Black-majority stronghold.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$27,383
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 26, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Christian Menefee" sa 91%, sinusundan ng "Al Green" sa 9%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 91¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 91% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" ay naka-generate ng $27.4K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Feb 4, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" ay "Christian Menefee" sa 91%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 91% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Al Green" sa 9%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.