Skip to main content
icon for FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner
Halalan·Florida

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner
Halalan·Florida

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner

Maisha Williams 6.3%

Mark Douglas 5.3%

Luther Campbell 5.0%

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick 1.9%

Polymarket
BAGO

Maisha Williams 6.3%

Mark Douglas 5.3%

Luther Campbell 5.0%

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick 1.9%

Polymarket
BAGO

Maisha Williams

$284 Vol.

6%

Mark Douglas

$259 Vol.

5%

Luther Campbell

$249 Vol.

5%

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick

$770 Vol.

2%

Rudy Moise

$479 Vol.

1%

Elijah Manley

$1,830 Vol.

39%

Dale Holness

$499 Vol.

42%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Elijah Manley at 57.5% implied probability to win Florida's 20th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 18, propelled by recent polls showing him leading the scandal-plagued incumbent Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned April 21 amid a House Ethics Committee hearing and federal indictment for misusing $5 million in COVID-19 disaster relief funds for her campaign. Her abrupt exit scatters support, boosting Manley's momentum as a district-native community organizer with progressive endorsements like No Dems Left Behind. Dale Holness trails at 36.5% as the battle-tested 2024 primary challenger with strong Q1 fundraising ($121,000), positioning him as the chief alternative amid a crowded field including Luther Campbell and Maisha Williams. No post-resignation polls yet, but qualifying deadlines loom in June.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,370
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 22, 2026, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Elijah Manley at 57.5% implied probability to win Florida's 20th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 18, propelled by recent polls showing him leading the scandal-plagued incumbent Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned April 21 amid a House Ethics Committee hearing and federal indictment for misusing $5 million in COVID-19 disaster relief funds for her campaign. Her abrupt exit scatters support, boosting Manley's momentum as a district-native community organizer with progressive endorsements like No Dems Left Behind. Dale Holness trails at 36.5% as the battle-tested 2024 primary challenger with strong Q1 fundraising ($121,000), positioning him as the chief alternative amid a crowded field including Luther Campbell and Maisha Williams. No post-resignation polls yet, but qualifying deadlines loom in June.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,370
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 22, 2026, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 7 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Dale Holness" sa 42%, sinusundan ng "Elijah Manley" sa 39%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 42¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 42% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Apr 22, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner," i-browse ang 7 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" ay "Dale Holness" sa 42%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 42% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Elijah Manley" sa 39%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.