Polymarket traders assign a leading 31.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, narrowly ahead of 23% for $7,000-$7,500, amid recent Middle East oil shocks from U.S.-Iran tensions that spiked core PCE inflation to 3% and curbed Federal Reserve easing expectations. Despite the index's all-time high near 7,125 on April 17, Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed to 0.5%, fueling 26% recession odds elsewhere and PE compression risks, even as Wall Street targets cluster at 7,200-7,600 on 18% CY2026 earnings growth forecasts to $309/share. Differentiators hinge on swift conflict resolution enabling rate cuts and AI-driven upside versus prolonged inflation eroding margins; upcoming Q1 GDP, April CPI, and May FOMC loom as pivotal catalysts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,000-$6,500 14%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
$19,269 Vol.
$19,269 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
14%
$6,500-$7,000
14%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
12%
>$8,000
12%
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,000-$6,500 14%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
$19,269 Vol.
$19,269 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,578 Vol.
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,351 Vol.
14%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,969 Vol.
14%
$7,000-$7,500
$923 Vol.
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,654 Vol.
12%
>$8,000
$1,794 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a leading 31.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, narrowly ahead of 23% for $7,000-$7,500, amid recent Middle East oil shocks from U.S.-Iran tensions that spiked core PCE inflation to 3% and curbed Federal Reserve easing expectations. Despite the index's all-time high near 7,125 on April 17, Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed to 0.5%, fueling 26% recession odds elsewhere and PE compression risks, even as Wall Street targets cluster at 7,200-7,600 on 18% CY2026 earnings growth forecasts to $309/share. Differentiators hinge on swift conflict resolution enabling rate cuts and AI-driven upside versus prolonged inflation eroding margins; upcoming Q1 GDP, April CPI, and May FOMC loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$19,269Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a leading 31.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, narrowly ahead of 23% for $7,000-$7,500, amid recent Middle East oil shocks from U.S.-Iran tensions that spiked core PCE inflation to 3% and curbed Federal Reserve easing expectations. Despite the index's all-time high near 7,125 on April 17, Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed to 0.5%, fueling 26% recession odds elsewhere and PE compression risks, even as Wall Street targets cluster at 7,200-7,600 on 18% CY2026 earnings growth forecasts to $309/share. Differentiators hinge on swift conflict resolution enabling rate cuts and AI-driven upside versus prolonged inflation eroding margins; upcoming Q1 GDP, April CPI, and May FOMC loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$19,269Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a leading 31.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, narrowly ahead of 23% for $7,000-$7,500, amid recent Middle East oil shocks from U.S.-Iran tensions that spiked core PCE inflation to 3% and curbed Federal Reserve easing expectations. Despite the index's all-time high near 7,125 on April 17, Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed to 0.5%, fueling 26% recession odds elsewhere and PE compression risks, even as Wall Street targets cluster at 7,200-7,600 on 18% CY2026 earnings growth forecasts to $309/share. Differentiators hinge on swift conflict resolution enabling rate cuts and AI-driven upside versus prolonged inflation eroding margins; upcoming Q1 GDP, April CPI, and May FOMC loom as pivotal catalysts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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