Trader consensus reflects an 89.8% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not be arrested before 2027, driven by the absence of any indictment, arrest warrant, or formal charges despite ongoing DOJ scrutiny of the 2016 Russia investigation origins. Recent catalysts include interviews last week with Obama-era officials like John Brennan, agency shake-ups, and President Trump's public accusations of treason tied to declassified DNI reports alleging a fabricated intelligence assessment. Legal hurdles—presidential immunity per Supreme Court rulings, statute of limitations on potential offenses, and insufficient direct evidence against Obama—sustain high "No" odds, as probes focus on subordinates amid evidentiary and political barriers to prosecuting a former commander-in-chief.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 89.8% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not be arrested before 2027, driven by the absence of any indictment, arrest warrant, or formal charges despite ongoing DOJ scrutiny of the 2016 Russia investigation origins. Recent catalysts include interviews last week with Obama-era officials like John Brennan, agency shake-ups, and President Trump's public accusations of treason tied to declassified DNI reports alleging a fabricated intelligence assessment. Legal hurdles—presidential immunity per Supreme Court rulings, statute of limitations on potential offenses, and insufficient direct evidence against Obama—sustain high "No" odds, as probes focus on subordinates amid evidentiary and political barriers to prosecuting a former commander-in-chief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$4,926Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 89.8% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not be arrested before 2027, driven by the absence of any indictment, arrest warrant, or formal charges despite ongoing DOJ scrutiny of the 2016 Russia investigation origins. Recent catalysts include interviews last week with Obama-era officials like John Brennan, agency shake-ups, and President Trump's public accusations of treason tied to declassified DNI reports alleging a fabricated intelligence assessment. Legal hurdles—presidential immunity per Supreme Court rulings, statute of limitations on potential offenses, and insufficient direct evidence against Obama—sustain high "No" odds, as probes focus on subordinates amid evidentiary and political barriers to prosecuting a former commander-in-chief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,926Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 89.8% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not be arrested before 2027, driven by the absence of any indictment, arrest warrant, or formal charges despite ongoing DOJ scrutiny of the 2016 Russia investigation origins. Recent catalysts include interviews last week with Obama-era officials like John Brennan, agency shake-ups, and President Trump's public accusations of treason tied to declassified DNI reports alleging a fabricated intelligence assessment. Legal hurdles—presidential immunity per Supreme Court rulings, statute of limitations on potential offenses, and insufficient direct evidence against Obama—sustain high "No" odds, as probes focus on subordinates amid evidentiary and political barriers to prosecuting a former commander-in-chief.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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