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Halalan·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Halalan·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 36%

Ruth Fortune 4.5%

Jillian Gilchrest 2.1%

Polymarket
BAGO

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 36%

Ruth Fortune 4.5%

Jillian Gilchrest 2.1%

Polymarket
BAGO

Luke Bronin

$3,895 Vol.

47%

John Larson

$699 Vol.

41%

Ruth Fortune

$848 Vol.

4%

Jillian Gilchrest

$1,817 Vol.

2%

Mark Stewart Greenstein

$1,521 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin’s narrow upset victory over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at the May 11 Connecticut 1st District Democratic convention—securing the party endorsement 214-204—has fueled trader consensus for a tight August 11 primary, with Larson holding a slim 41% implied probability edge over Bronin’s 37.5%. Larson’s incumbency advantages, including strong March internal polling leads and established fundraising parity, counter Bronin’s momentum from the rare denial of endorsement to a sitting congressman, local executive experience, and potential Row A ballot positioning. Minor candidates like state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest trail far behind. Separation could hinge on fresh public polls, additional endorsements, debate performances, or voter turnout in this safe Democratic district, where low primary participation favors name recognition.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8,781
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 11, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin’s narrow upset victory over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at the May 11 Connecticut 1st District Democratic convention—securing the party endorsement 214-204—has fueled trader consensus for a tight August 11 primary, with Larson holding a slim 41% implied probability edge over Bronin’s 37.5%. Larson’s incumbency advantages, including strong March internal polling leads and established fundraising parity, counter Bronin’s momentum from the rare denial of endorsement to a sitting congressman, local executive experience, and potential Row A ballot positioning. Minor candidates like state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest trail far behind. Separation could hinge on fresh public polls, additional endorsements, debate performances, or voter turnout in this safe Democratic district, where low primary participation favors name recognition.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8,781
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 11, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 5 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Luke Bronin" sa 47%, sinusundan ng "John Larson" sa 41%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 47¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 47% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Feb 26, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner," i-browse ang 5 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" ay "Luke Bronin" sa 47%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 47% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "John Larson" sa 41%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.