Canada’s economy demonstrated resilience in 2025 with real GDP expanding 1.7 percent for the year despite a 0.6 percent annualized contraction in Q4, avoiding recessionary territory. Bank of Canada projections and private forecasts now point to modest positive growth of 1.1–1.4 percent in 2026, supported by energy-sector gains from elevated oil prices and steady monetary policy with the overnight rate held at 2.25 percent. Restrictive immigration measures and U.S. trade uncertainty remain headwinds, yet leading indicators show no sharp downturn materializing. Trader consensus reflected in the 80.5 percent probability for no recession before 2027 incorporates these forward-looking data releases, with the next Bank of Canada decision and Q2 GDP print serving as near-term catalysts that could further anchor or shift market-implied odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$67,199 Vol.
$67,199 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$67,199 Vol.
$67,199 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)Canada’s economy demonstrated resilience in 2025 with real GDP expanding 1.7 percent for the year despite a 0.6 percent annualized contraction in Q4, avoiding recessionary territory. Bank of Canada projections and private forecasts now point to modest positive growth of 1.1–1.4 percent in 2026, supported by energy-sector gains from elevated oil prices and steady monetary policy with the overnight rate held at 2.25 percent. Restrictive immigration measures and U.S. trade uncertainty remain headwinds, yet leading indicators show no sharp downturn materializing. Trader consensus reflected in the 80.5 percent probability for no recession before 2027 incorporates these forward-looking data releases, with the next Bank of Canada decision and Q2 GDP print serving as near-term catalysts that could further anchor or shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$67,199Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)Canada’s economy demonstrated resilience in 2025 with real GDP expanding 1.7 percent for the year despite a 0.6 percent annualized contraction in Q4, avoiding recessionary territory. Bank of Canada projections and private forecasts now point to modest positive growth of 1.1–1.4 percent in 2026, supported by energy-sector gains from elevated oil prices and steady monetary policy with the overnight rate held at 2.25 percent. Restrictive immigration measures and U.S. trade uncertainty remain headwinds, yet leading indicators show no sharp downturn materializing. Trader consensus reflected in the 80.5 percent probability for no recession before 2027 incorporates these forward-looking data releases, with the next Bank of Canada decision and Q2 GDP print serving as near-term catalysts that could further anchor or shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
Volume
$67,199Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s economy demonstrated resilience in 2025 with real GDP expanding 1.7 percent for the year despite a 0.6 percent annualized contraction in Q4, avoiding recessionary territory. Bank of Canada projections and private forecasts now point to modest positive growth of 1.1–1.4 percent in 2026, supported by energy-sector gains from elevated oil prices and steady monetary policy with the overnight rate held at 2.25 percent. Restrictive immigration measures and U.S. trade uncertainty remain headwinds, yet leading indicators show no sharp downturn materializing. Trader consensus reflected in the 80.5 percent probability for no recession before 2027 incorporates these forward-looking data releases, with the next Bank of Canada decision and Q2 GDP print serving as near-term catalysts that could further anchor or shift market-implied odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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