Skip to main content
icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politika·Bahay Ng Mga Kinatawan

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politika·Bahay Ng Mga Kinatawan

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 68%

Rakhi Israni Singh 9%

Melissa Hernandez 8%

Carin Elam 4.9%

Polymarket
BAGO

Aisha Wahab 68%

Rakhi Israni Singh 9%

Melissa Hernandez 8%

Carin Elam 4.9%

Polymarket
BAGO

Aisha Wahab

$95 Vol.

68%

Melissa Hernandez

$43 Vol.

8%

Wendy Huang

$43 Vol.

4%

Carin Elam

$72 Vol.

5%

Matt Ortega

$48 Vol.

4%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$186 Vol.

9%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$43 Vol.

9%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Senator Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus at 66.5% implied probability for California's 14th Congressional District special election, driven by her 77% dominance among delegates at the California Democratic Party pre-endorsement conference and endorsements from Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, California Working Families Party, and Indivisible East Bay. Following Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, Governor Newsom set a June 16 top-two primary and August 18 general election; candidate filing closed April 23 with a crowded Democratic field in the D+19 district. Rakhi Israni Singh trails at 11% buoyed by $2M fundraising, while ex-State Sen. Bob Wieckowski's April 21 unity caretaker bid—supported by most rivals except Wahab—has yet to shift odds significantly ahead of absent public polls.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$532
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Senator Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus at 66.5% implied probability for California's 14th Congressional District special election, driven by her 77% dominance among delegates at the California Democratic Party pre-endorsement conference and endorsements from Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, California Working Families Party, and Indivisible East Bay. Following Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, Governor Newsom set a June 16 top-two primary and August 18 general election; candidate filing closed April 23 with a crowded Democratic field in the D+19 district. Rakhi Israni Singh trails at 11% buoyed by $2M fundraising, while ex-State Sen. Bob Wieckowski's April 21 unity caretaker bid—supported by most rivals except Wahab—has yet to shift odds significantly ahead of absent public polls.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$532
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 7 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Aisha Wahab" sa 68%, sinusundan ng "Rakhi Israni Singh" sa 9%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 68¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 68% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Apr 16, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," i-browse ang 7 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" ay "Aisha Wahab" sa 68%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 68% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Rakhi Israni Singh" sa 9%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.