Apple's reported deprioritization of a full Vision Pro successor, confirmed in late-September 2026 Bloomberg reporting, underpins the 97.4% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Mark Gurman detailed that the N224 project exploring lighter, potentially puck-based designs remains on "life support" with no committed timeline earlier than late 2028 or 2029, as resources shift toward display-free AI smart glasses targeted for 2027. The October 2025 M5 chip refresh represented only incremental hardware tweaks to the original 2024 model rather than a generational leap, aligning with canceled plans for a cheaper "Vision Air" variant. Traders see limited upside from last-minute acceleration given the absence of announcements, ongoing team reductions, and Apple's strategic pivot away from high-end spatial computing headsets. While an unforeseen competitive response or internal reversal could theoretically compress timelines, current verified developments leave almost no realistic path to a 2026 or early-2027 launch.