Anthropic’s advanced preparations for a record-breaking IPO targeted for November 2026, with filings indicating a potential $2 trillion-plus valuation, represent the core driver behind traders’ 97.2% implied probability against an acquisition before 2027. The company has secured massive funding rounds, including a $65 billion Series H at $965 billion valuation, while deepening commercial ties with Amazon and Google and advancing its Claude models through targeted acquisitions like Vercept. This public-market trajectory, combined with the extremely tight remaining timeframe, leaves little room for a deal of this scale to close. Regulatory scrutiny of a large AI transaction or an unforeseen internal shift could theoretically alter the path, though current momentum and disclosure momentum make such outcomes remote in the near term.