Christian Menefee's commanding 91% implied probability in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff stems from his recent victory in a January 2026 special election for the seat following Sylvester Turner's death, granting short-term incumbency advantage in the redrawn Houston-based district. Recent polls, including a New York Times average showing Menefee ahead 41%-35% over Al Green, reinforce trader consensus amid endorsements like Rep. Jasmine Crockett's and pro-Menefee super PAC ads. Heated debates this week highlighted Green's attacks on Menefee's early missed votes, but no shift in surveys. With the May 26 runoff approaching, a Green surge via base mobilization, debate momentum, or late scandals could narrow the gap in this Black-majority stronghold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วChristian Menefee 90.5%
Al Green 9.0%
Gretchen Brown <1%
Amanda Edwards <1%
$27,383 ปริมาณ
$27,383 ปริมาณ
Christian Menefee
91%
Al Green
9%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Christian Menefee 90.5%
Al Green 9.0%
Gretchen Brown <1%
Amanda Edwards <1%
$27,383 ปริมาณ
$27,383 ปริมาณ
Christian Menefee
91%
Al Green
9%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Christian Menefee's commanding 91% implied probability in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff stems from his recent victory in a January 2026 special election for the seat following Sylvester Turner's death, granting short-term incumbency advantage in the redrawn Houston-based district. Recent polls, including a New York Times average showing Menefee ahead 41%-35% over Al Green, reinforce trader consensus amid endorsements like Rep. Jasmine Crockett's and pro-Menefee super PAC ads. Heated debates this week highlighted Green's attacks on Menefee's early missed votes, but no shift in surveys. With the May 26 runoff approaching, a Green surge via base mobilization, debate momentum, or late scandals could narrow the gap in this Black-majority stronghold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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