Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 82% implied probability to win the Texas 18th Congressional District's Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his first-place finish in the March 3 primary (around 49% to Al Green's 43%) and consistent polling leads, including a recent average showing him up 41%-35% across four surveys. Menefee, who won a January special election runoff to serve the unexpired term following Rep. Sylvester Turner's death, benefits from strong Q1 fundraising ($1 million raised, including $600,000 post-February) and momentum as a newer face in a redrawn, safely Democratic district pitting him against veteran Rep. Al Green, displaced by 2025 redistricting. Green's long congressional record since 2005 sustains his 14% share amid low expected runoff turnout, while others trail far behind after failing to advance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วChristian Menefee 87.9%
Al Green 9.7%
Amanda Edwards <1%
Gretchen Brown <1%
$23,111 ปริมาณ
$23,111 ปริมาณ
Christian Menefee
88%
Al Green
10%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Christian Menefee 87.9%
Al Green 9.7%
Amanda Edwards <1%
Gretchen Brown <1%
$23,111 ปริมาณ
$23,111 ปริมาณ
Christian Menefee
88%
Al Green
10%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 82% implied probability to win the Texas 18th Congressional District's Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his first-place finish in the March 3 primary (around 49% to Al Green's 43%) and consistent polling leads, including a recent average showing him up 41%-35% across four surveys. Menefee, who won a January special election runoff to serve the unexpired term following Rep. Sylvester Turner's death, benefits from strong Q1 fundraising ($1 million raised, including $600,000 post-February) and momentum as a newer face in a redrawn, safely Democratic district pitting him against veteran Rep. Al Green, displaced by 2025 redistricting. Green's long congressional record since 2005 sustains his 14% share amid low expected runoff turnout, while others trail far behind after failing to advance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย