Recent polling averages project the PP at around 32% and Vox at 19%, giving the right-wing bloc roughly 198–212 seats in the 350-seat Congress—well above the 176-seat absolute majority threshold—in projections from multiple firms including 40dB, Sigma Dos, SocioMétrica, and GAD3. This follows Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s October 5 snap election call for November 29 amid coalition strains and declining left-bloc support, with the PSOE projected near 105–108 seats and Sumar/Podemos combined far below prior levels. Vox’s gains, often doubling its 2023 result, stem from voter shifts and its regional governing experience alongside the PP in several autonomous communities. These consistent trends across post-announcement surveys underpin the current trader consensus on a PP–Vox majority outcome.