Yemeni government forces, with Saudi-led coalition air support including over 100 fighter jets, launched Operation Dawn of Yemen in early October 2026 to reverse Houthi gains along the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and advance toward Sanaa. Ground advances have focused on coastal areas such as Mokha and Dhubab, supported by strikes on Houthi targets in Sanaa province, while the Houthis have responded with missile and drone attacks on Saudi sites. Saudi involvement has centered on aerial and operational backing for Yemeni troops rather than direct ground deployments, consistent with the market's strict definition requiring regular Saudi armed forces personnel to enter Sanaa proper. Trader odds remain low amid the emphasis on proxy operations and the challenges of a sustained push into the Houthi-held capital.