Former President Barack Obama faces no active federal or state criminal investigations or indictments that could plausibly lead to arrest in the next 15 months, reflecting deep institutional norms against prosecuting ex-presidents absent extraordinary evidence. Traders assign 98.4% probability to no arrest before 2027 because such an action would require unprecedented prosecutorial steps, Senate or state-level consensus, and survival of legal challenges through multiple courts. Historical precedent shows zero arrests of former presidents, underscoring the high threshold. Realistic shifts could still occur from newly surfaced evidence in legacy matters, a major policy reversal under a future administration, or unforeseen congressional action, though these remain low-probability catalysts within the tight resolution window.