France’s legislative election schedule runs to 2029, with snap dissolution possible at any time under Article 12 but viewed by traders as unlikely before year-end 2026. President Macron’s minority government faces acute budget pressure and opposition maneuvering, yet recent Senate gains by the National Rally and polling showing a potential Le Pen–Mélenchon presidential runoff in 2027 have reinforced incentives for stability rather than new legislative voting. Ongoing student protests, fiscal negotiations, and positioning by centrist and conservative figures ahead of the spring presidential contest further reduce immediate appetite for dissolution among key actors. No procedural steps or public signals from the Élysée point to an early call, keeping implied probabilities for a snap election by late 2026 in the low single digits.