Recent ECB communications and the June 11 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% underpin the 94% market-implied probability of no change at the July 23 meeting. With headline inflation projected at 3.0% for 2026 amid energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict, yet growth forecasts revised lower to 0.8%, the Governing Council has emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to further tightening. This pause allows assessment of the latest hike's effects on core inflation and labor conditions before the next policy step. Scenarios that could challenge the no-change consensus include stronger-than-expected May or June inflation prints exceeding 3.2% or renewed energy shocks that shift the medium-term outlook materially higher.