Persistent energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict have pushed euro area headline inflation toward 3.8% in September 2026, prompting the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September. Resilient eurozone growth, upward revisions to ECB staff inflation and growth forecasts, and hawkish communications from policymakers have reinforced expectations for a further measured tightening step. A Reuters poll of economists shows near-unanimous anticipation of a hold at the October 29 meeting followed by a 25-basis-point increase at the December 17 meeting, aligning with analyst forecasts from multiple institutions targeting a 2.75% terminal rate. This consensus on a modest hike reflects the balance between inflation risks and the absence of clear second-round effects in core measures or wages.