Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 51st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+10 to D+13) and her commanding $1.5 million fundraising haul as of late March, dwarfing zero-reported challengers. Recent certifications for the June 2 top-two primary confirmed a weak field: fellow Democrats Stan Caplan and David Engel, plus lone Republican Ricardo Cabrera, none posing a credible threat in this safe blue seat redrawn under Proposition 50 last November. Jacobs cruised to 61% in 2024 amid similar dynamics. Upsets would require a major scandal, her withdrawal, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave boosting GOP turnout in the November 3 general.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-51 House Election Winner
CA-51 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,921 ปริมาณ
94%
Republican Party
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 51st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+10 to D+13) and her commanding $1.5 million fundraising haul as of late March, dwarfing zero-reported challengers. Recent certifications for the June 2 top-two primary confirmed a weak field: fellow Democrats Stan Caplan and David Engel, plus lone Republican Ricardo Cabrera, none posing a credible threat in this safe blue seat redrawn under Proposition 50 last November. Jacobs cruised to 61% in 2024 amid similar dynamics. Upsets would require a major scandal, her withdrawal, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave boosting GOP turnout in the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,921วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 51st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+10 to D+13) and her commanding $1.5 million fundraising haul as of late March, dwarfing zero-reported challengers. Recent certifications for the June 2 top-two primary confirmed a weak field: fellow Democrats Stan Caplan and David Engel, plus lone Republican Ricardo Cabrera, none posing a credible threat in this safe blue seat redrawn under Proposition 50 last November. Jacobs cruised to 61% in 2024 amid similar dynamics. Upsets would require a major scandal, her withdrawal, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave boosting GOP turnout in the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,921วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 51st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+10 to D+13) and her commanding $1.5 million fundraising haul as of late March, dwarfing zero-reported challengers. Recent certifications for the June 2 top-two primary confirmed a weak field: fellow Democrats Stan Caplan and David Engel, plus lone Republican Ricardo Cabrera, none posing a credible threat in this safe blue seat redrawn under Proposition 50 last November. Jacobs cruised to 61% in 2024 amid similar dynamics. Upsets would require a major scandal, her withdrawal, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave boosting GOP turnout in the November 3 general.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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