Apple's M5-updated Vision Pro, released quietly in October 2025 as a minor processor and band refresh without design changes, has not altered trader views on a true successor. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported in September 2026 that any redesigned, lighter Vision Pro 2 under internal codename N224 remains on "life support" and is unlikely before late 2028 or early 2029, as Apple shifts resources toward smart glasses targeted for late 2027. Persistent engineering hurdles around weight, cost, and battery integration, combined with deprioritization after lukewarm adoption, underpin the 97.4% market-implied odds against a 2026 launch. While an unexpected competitive push or rapid component breakthrough could theoretically accelerate timelines, current roadmaps and lack of announcements make such shifts improbable before year-end.