Gold futures (GC) have rallied over 15% year-to-date amid declining real Treasury yields—now negative at -0.5% for 10-year TIPS—and a weakening US dollar index below 103, fueled by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following softer January CPI data showing core inflation at 3.1%. Geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions and record central bank gold buying (483 tonnes in Q4 2024 per World Gold Council) underpin safe-haven demand, pushing spot prices above $2,700/oz last week before a mild pullback. Traders watch March 12 CPI and the March 18-19 FOMC meeting for policy signals, with volatility implied by VIX at 15 potentially amplifying moves toward the end-of-March threshold. Prediction market sentiment aggregates real-money bets pricing in these macro drivers versus dollar rebound risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДостигнет ли Gold (GC) __ к концу марта?
Достигнет ли Gold (GC) __ к концу марта?
$2,709,338 Объем
↑ $10,000
<1%
↑ $7,000
<1%
↑ $6,600
<1%
↑ $6,400
<1%
↑ $6,200
<1%
↑ $6,000
<1%
↑ $5,800
<1%
↑ $5,600
<1%
↑ $5,500
1%
↑ $5,400
1%
↓ $4,300
32%
↓ $4,000
8%
↓ $3,600
2%
↓ $3 000
<1%
$2,709,338 Объем
↑ $10,000
<1%
↑ $7,000
<1%
↑ $6,600
<1%
↑ $6,400
<1%
↑ $6,200
<1%
↑ $6,000
<1%
↑ $5,800
<1%
↑ $5,600
<1%
↑ $5,500
1%
↑ $5,400
1%
↓ $4,300
32%
↓ $4,000
8%
↓ $3,600
2%
↓ $3 000
<1%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Открытие рынка: Mar 2, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Gold futures (GC) have rallied over 15% year-to-date amid declining real Treasury yields—now negative at -0.5% for 10-year TIPS—and a weakening US dollar index below 103, fueled by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following softer January CPI data showing core inflation at 3.1%. Geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions and record central bank gold buying (483 tonnes in Q4 2024 per World Gold Council) underpin safe-haven demand, pushing spot prices above $2,700/oz last week before a mild pullback. Traders watch March 12 CPI and the March 18-19 FOMC meeting for policy signals, with volatility implied by VIX at 15 potentially amplifying moves toward the end-of-March threshold. Prediction market sentiment aggregates real-money bets pricing in these macro drivers versus dollar rebound risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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