Market icon

Кто первым покинет кабинет Трампа?

Market icon

Кто первым покинет кабинет Трампа?

Ended: Dec 31

Dec 31

Ended: Dec 31

Dec 31

Стивен Миран 100.0%

Джей Ди Ванс <1%

Скотт Бессент <1%

Пэм Бонди <1%

Polymarket

$3,208,268 Объем

Стивен Миран 100.0%

Джей Ди Ванс <1%

Скотт Бессент <1%

Пэм Бонди <1%

Polymarket

$3,208,268 Объем

Джей Ди Ванс

$110,819 Объем

Нет

Скотт Бессент

$61,829 Объем

Нет

Пэм Бонди

$450,324 Объем

Нет

Брук Роллинс

$45,287 Объем

Нет

Лори Чавез-ДеРемер

$131,650 Объем

Нет

Скотт Тёрнер

$137,970 Объем

Нет

Крис Райт

$49,351 Объем

Нет

Дуг Коллинз

$134,704 Объем

Нет

Ли Зельдин

$85,056 Объем

Нет

Тулси Габбард

$82,861 Объем

Нет

Джон Рэтклифф

$144,150 Объем

Нет

Майк Уолтц

$67,347 Объем

Нет

Келли Леффлер

$77,870 Объем

Нет

Никто до 2027 года

$209,248 Объем

Нет

Марко Рубио

$114,485 Объем

Нет

Пит Хегсетх

$156,483 Объем

Нет

Даг Бургум

$145,164 Объем

Нет

Ховард Лютник

$142,348 Объем

Нет

Роберт Ф. Кеннеди-младший

$55,069 Объем

Нет

Шон Дафи

$101,115 Объем

Нет

Линда МакМэн

$52,725 Объем

Нет

Кристи Ноэм

$299,942 Объем

Нет

Сьюзи Уайлс

$66,208 Объем

Нет

Раселл Т. Ваутгт

$81,913 Объем

Нет

Jamieson Greer

$96,863 Объем

Нет

Стивен Миран

$107,487 Объем

Да

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Объем
$3,208,268
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026
Открытие рынка
Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Кто первым покинет кабинет Трампа?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 26 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Стивен Миран" at 100%, followed by "Джей Ди Ванс" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Кто первым покинет кабинет Трампа?" has generated $3.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Кто первым покинет кабинет Трампа?," browse the 26 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Кто первым покинет кабинет Трампа?" is "Стивен Миран" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Джей Ди Ванс" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Кто первым покинет кабинет Трампа?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.