Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors the $425,000–$427,500 median US home value range (50% implied probability) for April 1, driven by persistent housing shortages and sticky mortgage rates around 6.8%, which continue to prop up prices despite softening demand. Recent Redfin data pegged November 2024 median sales at $431,000, down slightly from October but up 3% year-over-year, while NAR's January report showed $393,500 amid low 3.5-month inventory—well below the 6-month balanced level. Fed rate cuts have eased 30-year fixed rates from 7.8% peaks, but forecasts from Fannie Mae project modest 2.5% growth in 2025, positioning nearby bins like $427.5k–$430k (17%) as contenders amid upcoming March NAR releases and inventory trends.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакова будет медианная стоимость жилья в США 1 апреля?
Какова будет медианная стоимость жилья в США 1 апреля?
425–427,5 тыс. 62%
427,5 - 430 тыс. 17.0%
422,5 - 425 тыс. 14%
430 - 432,5 тыс. 8.4%
$16,678 Объем
$16,678 Объем
Apr 1, 2026
<420 тыс.
10%
420 - 422,5 тыс.
9%
422,5 - 425 тыс.
14%
425–427,5 тыс.
53%
427,5 - 430 тыс.
17%
430 - 432,5 тыс.
8%
432,5 - 435 тыс.
1%
>435 тыс.
3%
425–427,5 тыс. 62%
427,5 - 430 тыс. 17.0%
422,5 - 425 тыс. 14%
430 - 432,5 тыс. 8.4%
$16,678 Объем
$16,678 Объем
Apr 1, 2026
<420 тыс.
$204 Объем
10%
420 - 422,5 тыс.
$187 Объем
9%
422,5 - 425 тыс.
$6,238 Объем
14%
425–427,5 тыс.
$7,198 Объем
53%
427,5 - 430 тыс.
$295 Объем
17%
430 - 432,5 тыс.
$859 Объем
8%
432,5 - 435 тыс.
$1,377 Объем
1%
>435 тыс.
$320 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
Открытие рынка: Feb 27, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Объем
$16,678Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 27, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
Объем
$16,678Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 27, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors the $425,000–$427,500 median US home value range (50% implied probability) for April 1, driven by persistent housing shortages and sticky mortgage rates around 6.8%, which continue to prop up prices despite softening demand. Recent Redfin data pegged November 2024 median sales at $431,000, down slightly from October but up 3% year-over-year, while NAR's January report showed $393,500 amid low 3.5-month inventory—well below the 6-month balanced level. Fed rate cuts have eased 30-year fixed rates from 7.8% peaks, but forecasts from Fannie Mae project modest 2.5% growth in 2025, positioning nearby bins like $427.5k–$430k (17%) as contenders amid upcoming March NAR releases and inventory trends.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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