Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around an S&P 500 close between 6,100 and 6,300 on March 31 (28% implied probability), up from current levels near 5,967, fueled by sustained tech sector momentum and Fed funds futures pricing a 25 basis point rate cut at the March 18-19 FOMC meeting. Recent SPX gains reflect robust Q4 earnings beats from mega-caps like Nvidia, offsetting tariff policy risks under the new administration. Critical catalysts ahead include tomorrow's CPI data—expected at 2.5% YoY core—and payrolls on March 7, where hotter-than-expected inflation could pivot market-implied odds lower amid historical March volatility averaging 2.5% swings. Real capital backing underscores this sentiment, though forecasts carry uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) hit in March?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit in March?
$92,088 Объем
↓ 5700
4%
↓ 5600
4%
↓ 5500
4%
↓ 5350
1%
↓ 5200
1%
↓ 5000
1%
↓ 4750
1%
$92,088 Объем
↓ 5700
4%
↓ 5600
4%
↓ 5500
4%
↓ 5350
1%
↓ 5200
1%
↓ 5000
1%
↓ 4750
1%
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.
Открытие рынка: Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around an S&P 500 close between 6,100 and 6,300 on March 31 (28% implied probability), up from current levels near 5,967, fueled by sustained tech sector momentum and Fed funds futures pricing a 25 basis point rate cut at the March 18-19 FOMC meeting. Recent SPX gains reflect robust Q4 earnings beats from mega-caps like Nvidia, offsetting tariff policy risks under the new administration. Critical catalysts ahead include tomorrow's CPI data—expected at 2.5% YoY core—and payrolls on March 7, where hotter-than-expected inflation could pivot market-implied odds lower amid historical March volatility averaging 2.5% swings. Real capital backing underscores this sentiment, though forecasts carry uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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