Polymarket traders are pricing in a 65% implied probability for SPY exceeding $650 by April 2026, driven primarily by consensus forecasts of 12-15% annual S&P 500 earnings growth fueled by AI investments and resilient corporate profits amid moderating inflation. Current SPY trades near $573, with forward P/E ratios around 22x reflecting stretched valuations vulnerable to Fed policy shifts; recent rate cuts to 4.50-4.75% bolster sentiment, but persistent 2.5% core PCE inflation risks tighter policy. Key catalysts include Q1 2025 earnings from megacaps like Nvidia and upcoming FOMC meetings through mid-2026, where dot-plot revisions could swing market-implied odds as traders position for 6,500-7,000 S&P levels.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЧто ударит по SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) в апреле 2026 года?
Что ударит по SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) в апреле 2026 года?
↑ $720
100%
↑ $710
50%
↑ $700
100%
↑ $690
50%
↑ $680
50%
↑ $670
50%
↑ $660
50%
↓ $650
50%
↓ $640
100%
↓ $630
100%
↓ $620
100%
↓ $610
50%
↓ $600
100%
↓ $590
50%
$0.00 Объем
↑ $720
100%
↑ $710
50%
↑ $700
100%
↑ $690
50%
↑ $680
50%
↑ $670
50%
↑ $660
50%
↓ $650
50%
↓ $640
100%
↓ $630
100%
↓ $620
100%
↓ $610
50%
↓ $600
100%
↓ $590
50%
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing in a 65% implied probability for SPY exceeding $650 by April 2026, driven primarily by consensus forecasts of 12-15% annual S&P 500 earnings growth fueled by AI investments and resilient corporate profits amid moderating inflation. Current SPY trades near $573, with forward P/E ratios around 22x reflecting stretched valuations vulnerable to Fed policy shifts; recent rate cuts to 4.50-4.75% bolster sentiment, but persistent 2.5% core PCE inflation risks tighter policy. Key catalysts include Q1 2025 earnings from megacaps like Nvidia and upcoming FOMC meetings through mid-2026, where dot-plot revisions could swing market-implied odds as traders position for 6,500-7,000 S&P levels.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы