Pakistan's recent military operations against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in Afghanistan, including airstrikes and artillery exchanges along the Durand Line border, have entrenched hostilities with the Taliban government, driving trader consensus to 97.5% against a ceasefire by March 31. Over the past month, Islamabad has closed key TTP crossings, deported over 500,000 Afghans, and expelled Taliban diplomats amid accusations of Kabul harboring terrorists, with no reciprocal security concessions or bilateral negotiations reported. Taliban spokesmen have rejected demands while vowing retaliation, underscoring irreconcilable positions. Though improbable, surprise mediation by China or a high-level summit before the deadline could prompt de-escalation and alter odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$125,290 Объем
$125,290 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Да
$125,290 Объем
$125,290 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Pakistan's recent military operations against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in Afghanistan, including airstrikes and artillery exchanges along the Durand Line border, have entrenched hostilities with the Taliban government, driving trader consensus to 97.5% against a ceasefire by March 31. Over the past month, Islamabad has closed key TTP crossings, deported over 500,000 Afghans, and expelled Taliban diplomats amid accusations of Kabul harboring terrorists, with no reciprocal security concessions or bilateral negotiations reported. Taliban spokesmen have rejected demands while vowing retaliation, underscoring irreconcilable positions. Though improbable, surprise mediation by China or a high-level summit before the deadline could prompt de-escalation and alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Объем
$125,290Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Pakistan's recent military operations against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in Afghanistan, including airstrikes and artillery exchanges along the Durand Line border, have entrenched hostilities with the Taliban government, driving trader consensus to 97.5% against a ceasefire by March 31. Over the past month, Islamabad has closed key TTP crossings, deported over 500,000 Afghans, and expelled Taliban diplomats amid accusations of Kabul harboring terrorists, with no reciprocal security concessions or bilateral negotiations reported. Taliban spokesmen have rejected demands while vowing retaliation, underscoring irreconcilable positions. Though improbable, surprise mediation by China or a high-level summit before the deadline could prompt de-escalation and alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$125,290Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pakistan's recent military operations against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in Afghanistan, including airstrikes and artillery exchanges along the Durand Line border, have entrenched hostilities with the Taliban government, driving trader consensus to 97.5% against a ceasefire by March 31. Over the past month, Islamabad has closed key TTP crossings, deported over 500,000 Afghans, and expelled Taliban diplomats amid accusations of Kabul harboring terrorists, with no reciprocal security concessions or bilateral negotiations reported. Taliban spokesmen have rejected demands while vowing retaliation, underscoring irreconcilable positions. Though improbable, surprise mediation by China or a high-level summit before the deadline could prompt de-escalation and alter odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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