Ongoing border clashes and Pakistan's recent airstrikes targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant hideouts in Afghanistan, including strikes near Kabul on March 17, have entrenched positions against a full ceasefire, driving trader consensus to 98.6% on "No" by March 31. The temporary five-day Eid al-Fitr pause mediated by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey ended around March 23 without extension or progress toward permanent de-escalation, as Taliban demands for talks from scratch were rejected by Islamabad favoring continued anti-terror operations alongside diplomacy. UN experts urged a new truce four days ago amid fresh artillery exchanges, but no scheduled negotiations or concessions have emerged in the final days before deadline. A surprise bilateral announcement or third-party mediation breakthrough could still shift odds, though structural mistrust over TTP safe havens and Durand Line disputes makes this unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$125,626 Объем
$125,626 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Да
$125,626 Объем
$125,626 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing border clashes and Pakistan's recent airstrikes targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant hideouts in Afghanistan, including strikes near Kabul on March 17, have entrenched positions against a full ceasefire, driving trader consensus to 98.6% on "No" by March 31. The temporary five-day Eid al-Fitr pause mediated by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey ended around March 23 without extension or progress toward permanent de-escalation, as Taliban demands for talks from scratch were rejected by Islamabad favoring continued anti-terror operations alongside diplomacy. UN experts urged a new truce four days ago amid fresh artillery exchanges, but no scheduled negotiations or concessions have emerged in the final days before deadline. A surprise bilateral announcement or third-party mediation breakthrough could still shift odds, though structural mistrust over TTP safe havens and Durand Line disputes makes this unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Объем
$125,626Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing border clashes and Pakistan's recent airstrikes targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant hideouts in Afghanistan, including strikes near Kabul on March 17, have entrenched positions against a full ceasefire, driving trader consensus to 98.6% on "No" by March 31. The temporary five-day Eid al-Fitr pause mediated by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey ended around March 23 without extension or progress toward permanent de-escalation, as Taliban demands for talks from scratch were rejected by Islamabad favoring continued anti-terror operations alongside diplomacy. UN experts urged a new truce four days ago amid fresh artillery exchanges, but no scheduled negotiations or concessions have emerged in the final days before deadline. A surprise bilateral announcement or third-party mediation breakthrough could still shift odds, though structural mistrust over TTP safe havens and Durand Line disputes makes this unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$125,626Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing border clashes and Pakistan's recent airstrikes targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant hideouts in Afghanistan, including strikes near Kabul on March 17, have entrenched positions against a full ceasefire, driving trader consensus to 98.6% on "No" by March 31. The temporary five-day Eid al-Fitr pause mediated by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey ended around March 23 without extension or progress toward permanent de-escalation, as Taliban demands for talks from scratch were rejected by Islamabad favoring continued anti-terror operations alongside diplomacy. UN experts urged a new truce four days ago amid fresh artillery exchanges, but no scheduled negotiations or concessions have emerged in the final days before deadline. A surprise bilateral announcement or third-party mediation breakthrough could still shift odds, though structural mistrust over TTP safe havens and Durand Line disputes makes this unlikely.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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