Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability against a megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by March 31, anchored in the extreme rarity of such events, with only five documented globally since 1900, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) real-time monitoring revealing no anomalous seismic activity or precursors across major subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Cascadia, or South America. Recent weeks show stable strain patterns and typical background seismicity, far below thresholds for imminent rupture, as confirmed by global networks tracking fault slip and aftershock decay. While inherent forecasting uncertainty persists, realistic shifts would require sudden acceleration on a locked fault—unprecedented without prior foreshocks—amid ongoing USGS updates through the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоМегатрясение к 31 марта?
Мегатрясение к 31 марта?
Да
$114,718 Объем
$114,718 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Да
$114,718 Объем
$114,718 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability against a megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by March 31, anchored in the extreme rarity of such events, with only five documented globally since 1900, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) real-time monitoring revealing no anomalous seismic activity or precursors across major subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Cascadia, or South America. Recent weeks show stable strain patterns and typical background seismicity, far below thresholds for imminent rupture, as confirmed by global networks tracking fault slip and aftershock decay. While inherent forecasting uncertainty persists, realistic shifts would require sudden acceleration on a locked fault—unprecedented without prior foreshocks—amid ongoing USGS updates through the deadline.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Открытие рынка: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Объем
$114,718Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability against a megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by March 31, anchored in the extreme rarity of such events, with only five documented globally since 1900, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) real-time monitoring revealing no anomalous seismic activity or precursors across major subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Cascadia, or South America. Recent weeks show stable strain patterns and typical background seismicity, far below thresholds for imminent rupture, as confirmed by global networks tracking fault slip and aftershock decay. While inherent forecasting uncertainty persists, realistic shifts would require sudden acceleration on a locked fault—unprecedented without prior foreshocks—amid ongoing USGS updates through the deadline.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Объем
$114,718Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability against a megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by March 31, anchored in the extreme rarity of such events, with only five documented globally since 1900, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) real-time monitoring revealing no anomalous seismic activity or precursors across major subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Cascadia, or South America. Recent weeks show stable strain patterns and typical background seismicity, far below thresholds for imminent rupture, as confirmed by global networks tracking fault slip and aftershock decay. While inherent forecasting uncertainty persists, realistic shifts would require sudden acceleration on a locked fault—unprecedented without prior foreshocks—amid ongoing USGS updates through the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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