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icon for Мегатрясение к 30 июня?

Мегатрясение к 30 июня?

icon for Мегатрясение к 30 июня?

Мегатрясение к 30 июня?

июн. 30

июн. 30

Да

16% вероятность
Polymarket

$64,325 Объем

Да

16% вероятность
Polymarket

$64,325 Объем

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, driven by the absence of any such events in USGS records since late 2025, despite five M7+ quakes in 2026—including a M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan on April 20. That event prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory citing a temporary 1% elevated risk for an M8+ along the Japan Trench (up from 0.1% baseline), but USGS data shows no subsequent escalation in seismic activity. Historical rates average about one M8+ annually, rendering the remaining ~54 days low-probability amid normal global seismicity and the fundamental unpredictability of fault ruptures. Continuous USGS monitoring will provide updates that could influence odds.

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Объем
$64,325
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, driven by the absence of any such events in USGS records since late 2025, despite five M7+ quakes in 2026—including a M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan on April 20. That event prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory citing a temporary 1% elevated risk for an M8+ along the Japan Trench (up from 0.1% baseline), but USGS data shows no subsequent escalation in seismic activity. Historical rates average about one M8+ annually, rendering the remaining ~54 days low-probability amid normal global seismicity and the fundamental unpredictability of fault ruptures. Continuous USGS monitoring will provide updates that could influence odds.

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Объем
$64,325
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Мегатрясение к 30 июня?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Мегаземлетрясение до 30 июня?» с 16%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 16¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 16%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Мегатрясение к 30 июня?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $64.3K с момента запуска рынка Dec 29, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Мегатрясение к 30 июня?», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Мегатрясение к 30 июня?» — «Мегаземлетрясение до 30 июня?» с 16%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 16%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Мегатрясение к 30 июня?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.