Recent reports indicate SpaceX is poised to file its IPO prospectus imminently, targeting a record $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation—surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion benchmark—fueled by Starlink's explosive subscriber growth exceeding 9,500 satellites and robust launch cadence. Yet Polymarket's trader consensus reflects caution, with market-implied probabilities closely contested at 26% for a 70-80 billion raise, 19% for 50-60 billion, and 18.5% for 60-70 billion, pricing in valuation skepticism amid a "Musk premium" versus fundamentals like revenue trajectories and competitive pressures from Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Secondary share trading at $467-612 implies a 1.1 trillion valuation, but public market appetite, regulatory hurdles, and macroeconomic risk appetite remain key swing factors ahead of pricing and potential mid-2026 listing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$81,888 Объем
$81,888 Объем
<40B
6%
40-50B
15%
50-60B
19%
60-70B
19%
70-80B
26%
80-90B
12%
90-100B
5%
100-110B
1%
110-120B
1%
120 млрд+
2%
$81,888 Объем
$81,888 Объем
<40B
$8,293 Объем
6%
40-50B
$4,837 Объем
15%
50-60B
$15,317 Объем
19%
60-70B
$7,286 Объем
19%
70-80B
$10,732 Объем
26%
80-90B
$7,224 Объем
12%
90-100B
$7,699 Объем
5%
100-110B
$5,869 Объем
1%
110-120B
$7,590 Объем
1%
120 млрд+
$7,042 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent reports indicate SpaceX is poised to file its IPO prospectus imminently, targeting a record $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation—surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion benchmark—fueled by Starlink's explosive subscriber growth exceeding 9,500 satellites and robust launch cadence. Yet Polymarket's trader consensus reflects caution, with market-implied probabilities closely contested at 26% for a 70-80 billion raise, 19% for 50-60 billion, and 18.5% for 60-70 billion, pricing in valuation skepticism amid a "Musk premium" versus fundamentals like revenue trajectories and competitive pressures from Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Secondary share trading at $467-612 implies a 1.1 trillion valuation, but public market appetite, regulatory hurdles, and macroeconomic risk appetite remain key swing factors ahead of pricing and potential mid-2026 listing.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Объем
$81,888Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent reports indicate SpaceX is poised to file its IPO prospectus imminently, targeting a record $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation—surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion benchmark—fueled by Starlink's explosive subscriber growth exceeding 9,500 satellites and robust launch cadence. Yet Polymarket's trader consensus reflects caution, with market-implied probabilities closely contested at 26% for a 70-80 billion raise, 19% for 50-60 billion, and 18.5% for 60-70 billion, pricing in valuation skepticism amid a "Musk premium" versus fundamentals like revenue trajectories and competitive pressures from Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Secondary share trading at $467-612 implies a 1.1 trillion valuation, but public market appetite, regulatory hurdles, and macroeconomic risk appetite remain key swing factors ahead of pricing and potential mid-2026 listing.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$81,888Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent reports indicate SpaceX is poised to file its IPO prospectus imminently, targeting a record $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation—surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion benchmark—fueled by Starlink's explosive subscriber growth exceeding 9,500 satellites and robust launch cadence. Yet Polymarket's trader consensus reflects caution, with market-implied probabilities closely contested at 26% for a 70-80 billion raise, 19% for 50-60 billion, and 18.5% for 60-70 billion, pricing in valuation skepticism amid a "Musk premium" versus fundamentals like revenue trajectories and competitive pressures from Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Secondary share trading at $467-612 implies a 1.1 trillion valuation, but public market appetite, regulatory hurdles, and macroeconomic risk appetite remain key swing factors ahead of pricing and potential mid-2026 listing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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