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Геополитика·Иран

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Market icon
Геополитика·Иран

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

15-19 59.0%

20-24 36.7%

25-29 3.8%

30-34 <1%

Polymarket

$386,153 Объем

15-19 59.0%

20-24 36.7%

25-29 3.8%

30-34 <1%

Polymarket

$386,153 Объем

<10

$52,330 Объем

<1%

10-14

$35,440 Объем

1%

15-19

$37,648 Объем

59%

20-24

$35,931 Объем

37%

25-29

$24,197 Объем

4%

30-34

$21,953 Объем

1%

35-39

$32,445 Объем

<1%

40-44

$47,987 Объем

1%

45+

$98,221 Объем

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities that erupted in early March 2026, commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted from a pre-conflict daily average of 138 vessels to a trickle, with Lloyd's List Intelligence reporting just 89 ships from March 1-15 and Anadolu Agency citing 144 total through March 23. Windward's March 22 update noted only 16 AIS-visible crossings over the prior seven days, mostly via Iranian territorial waters under IRGC-vetted "safe corridors" for non-hostile ships. This sustained de facto blockade and selective passage explain trader consensus pricing 15-19 ships for March 17-23 at 59% and 20-24 at 37%, reflecting minimal non-Iranian traffic amid elevated risks, naval patrols, and hundreds of vessels loitering nearby.

Amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities that erupted in early March 2026, commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted from a pre-conflict daily average of 138 vessels to a trickle, with Lloyd's List Intelligence reporting just 89 ships from March 1-15 and Anadolu Agency citing 144 total through March 23. Windward's March 22 update noted only 16 AIS-visible crossings over the prior seven days, mostly via Iranian territorial waters under IRGC-vetted "safe corridors" for non-hostile ships. This sustained de facto blockade and selective passage explain trader consensus pricing 15-19 ships for March 17-23 at 59% and 20-24 at 37%, reflecting minimal non-Iranian traffic amid elevated risks, naval patrols, and hundreds of vessels loitering nearby.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities that erupted in early March 2026, commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted from a pre-conflict daily average of 138 vessels to a trickle, with Lloyd's List Intelligence reporting just 89 ships from March 1-15 and Anadolu Agency citing 144 total through March 23. Windward's March 22 update noted only 16 AIS-visible crossings over the prior seven days, mostly via Iranian territorial waters under IRGC-vetted "safe corridors" for non-hostile ships. This sustained de facto blockade and selective passage explain trader consensus pricing 15-19 ships for March 17-23 at 59% and 20-24 at 37%, reflecting minimal non-Iranian traffic amid elevated risks, naval patrols, and hundreds of vessels loitering nearby.

Amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities that erupted in early March 2026, commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted from a pre-conflict daily average of 138 vessels to a trickle, with Lloyd's List Intelligence reporting just 89 ships from March 1-15 and Anadolu Agency citing 144 total through March 23. Windward's March 22 update noted only 16 AIS-visible crossings over the prior seven days, mostly via Iranian territorial waters under IRGC-vetted "safe corridors" for non-hostile ships. This sustained de facto blockade and selective passage explain trader consensus pricing 15-19 ships for March 17-23 at 59% and 20-24 at 37%, reflecting minimal non-Iranian traffic amid elevated risks, naval patrols, and hundreds of vessels loitering nearby.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 9 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «15-19» с 59%, за ним следует «20-24» с 37%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 59¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 59%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $386.2K с момента запуска рынка Mar 17, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)», просмотри 9 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)» — «15-19» с 59%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 59%. Следующий ближайший исход — «20-24» с 37%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.