Trader consensus prices 15-19 commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 59%, reflecting maritime intelligence reports like Windward.ai documenting just 16 AIS-visible crossings in the prior seven days ending March 22 amid critically low traffic. Ongoing hostilities from late February U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran have prompted Tehran to restrict passage to select non-hostile vessels via an IRGC-controlled corridor, collapsing volumes from a pre-conflict average of nearly 1,000 weekly to a trickle, with cumulative data showing only 144 transits March 1-23. The 37% odds on 20-24 account for potential undercounts from dark fleet activity or semi-dark movements hugging Iranian waters, while no de-escalation signals or reopening loom ahead.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
15-19 58.9%
20-24 36.7%
25-29 3.8%
10-14 <1%
$386,475 Объем
$386,475 Объем
Mar 23, 2026
<10
<1%
10-14
1%
15-19
59%
20-24
37%
25-29
4%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
1%
45+
1%
15-19 58.9%
20-24 36.7%
25-29 3.8%
10-14 <1%
$386,475 Объем
$386,475 Объем
Mar 23, 2026
<10
$52,330 Объем
<1%
10-14
$35,715 Объем
1%
15-19
$37,682 Объем
59%
20-24
$35,943 Объем
37%
25-29
$24,197 Объем
4%
30-34
$21,953 Объем
1%
35-39
$32,445 Объем
<1%
40-44
$47,987 Объем
1%
45+
$98,221 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus prices 15-19 commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 59%, reflecting maritime intelligence reports like Windward.ai documenting just 16 AIS-visible crossings in the prior seven days ending March 22 amid critically low traffic. Ongoing hostilities from late February U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran have prompted Tehran to restrict passage to select non-hostile vessels via an IRGC-controlled corridor, collapsing volumes from a pre-conflict average of nearly 1,000 weekly to a trickle, with cumulative data showing only 144 transits March 1-23. The 37% odds on 20-24 account for potential undercounts from dark fleet activity or semi-dark movements hugging Iranian waters, while no de-escalation signals or reopening loom ahead.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Объем
$386,475Дата окончания
Mar 23, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus prices 15-19 commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 59%, reflecting maritime intelligence reports like Windward.ai documenting just 16 AIS-visible crossings in the prior seven days ending March 22 amid critically low traffic. Ongoing hostilities from late February U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran have prompted Tehran to restrict passage to select non-hostile vessels via an IRGC-controlled corridor, collapsing volumes from a pre-conflict average of nearly 1,000 weekly to a trickle, with cumulative data showing only 144 transits March 1-23. The 37% odds on 20-24 account for potential undercounts from dark fleet activity or semi-dark movements hugging Iranian waters, while no de-escalation signals or reopening loom ahead.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$386,475Дата окончания
Mar 23, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices 15-19 commercial ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 59%, reflecting maritime intelligence reports like Windward.ai documenting just 16 AIS-visible crossings in the prior seven days ending March 22 amid critically low traffic. Ongoing hostilities from late February U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran have prompted Tehran to restrict passage to select non-hostile vessels via an IRGC-controlled corridor, collapsing volumes from a pre-conflict average of nearly 1,000 weekly to a trickle, with cumulative data showing only 144 transits March 1-23. The 37% odds on 20-24 account for potential undercounts from dark fleet activity or semi-dark movements hugging Iranian waters, while no de-escalation signals or reopening loom ahead.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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