Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Wellington on April 11, 2026, driven by official observations from Wellington International Airport (NZWN station), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground finalized data. Late-afternoon readings peaked at 19-20°C under high cloud cover and light northerlies, aligning with MetService and NIWA model consensus that capped intensification amid diminishing sunlight; earlier forecasts of 22°C proved optimistic as cooler sea breezes moderated peaks. This reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of real-time METAR reports and hourly data, consistent with April climatology averaging 17°C highs. Realistic challenges include rare post-sunset measurement revisions or overlooked microsite warming, though improbable given current cooling to 16°C and market nearing resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on April 11?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 11?
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$256,840 Объем
$256,840 Объем
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$256,840 Объем
$256,840 Объем
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Wellington on April 11, 2026, driven by official observations from Wellington International Airport (NZWN station), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground finalized data. Late-afternoon readings peaked at 19-20°C under high cloud cover and light northerlies, aligning with MetService and NIWA model consensus that capped intensification amid diminishing sunlight; earlier forecasts of 22°C proved optimistic as cooler sea breezes moderated peaks. This reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of real-time METAR reports and hourly data, consistent with April climatology averaging 17°C highs. Realistic challenges include rare post-sunset measurement revisions or overlooked microsite warming, though improbable given current cooling to 16°C and market nearing resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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