Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 35°C or higher at Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv on April 15, 2026, driven by Israel Meteorological Service forecasts of a sharp heatwave onset with southerly winds advecting hot desert air masses amid mostly sunny skies and light breezes. Observations confirm rapid intensification—21°C on April 13 rising to 27°C on April 14—aligning with model ensembles projecting peaks above seasonal norms of 23–24°C, further adjusted for documented 1°C cold bias in short-range maximum temperature guidance. Current midday readings near 26°C support this trajectory, with heat stress warnings issued for inland valleys. Realistic challenges include an unexpected marine layer intrusion or strengthened sea breeze capping advection, though synoptic patterns favor sustained highs; monitor hourly NOAA data at LLBG for confirmation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 15?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 15?
35°C or higher 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$127,873 Объем
$127,873 Объем
15 апр. 2026 г.
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
Yes
35°C or higher 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$127,873 Объем
$127,873 Объем
15 апр. 2026 г.
25°C or below
$13,246 Объем
No
26°C
$2,029 Объем
No
27°C
$4,221 Объем
No
28°C
$5,321 Объем
No
29°C
$4,475 Объем
No
30°C
$6,364 Объем
No
31°C
$10,509 Объем
No
32°C
$12,554 Объем
No
33°C
$19,916 Объем
No
34°C
$15,947 Объем
No
35°C or higher
$33,291 Объем
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 35°C or higher at Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv on April 15, 2026, driven by Israel Meteorological Service forecasts of a sharp heatwave onset with southerly winds advecting hot desert air masses amid mostly sunny skies and light breezes. Observations confirm rapid intensification—21°C on April 13 rising to 27°C on April 14—aligning with model ensembles projecting peaks above seasonal norms of 23–24°C, further adjusted for documented 1°C cold bias in short-range maximum temperature guidance. Current midday readings near 26°C support this trajectory, with heat stress warnings issued for inland valleys. Realistic challenges include an unexpected marine layer intrusion or strengthened sea breeze capping advection, though synoptic patterns favor sustained highs; monitor hourly NOAA data at LLBG for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 13, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Объем
$127,873Дата окончания
15 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 13, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 35°C or higher at Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv on April 15, 2026, driven by Israel Meteorological Service forecasts of a sharp heatwave onset with southerly winds advecting hot desert air masses amid mostly sunny skies and light breezes. Observations confirm rapid intensification—21°C on April 13 rising to 27°C on April 14—aligning with model ensembles projecting peaks above seasonal norms of 23–24°C, further adjusted for documented 1°C cold bias in short-range maximum temperature guidance. Current midday readings near 26°C support this trajectory, with heat stress warnings issued for inland valleys. Realistic challenges include an unexpected marine layer intrusion or strengthened sea breeze capping advection, though synoptic patterns favor sustained highs; monitor hourly NOAA data at LLBG for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$127,873Дата окончания
15 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 13, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 35°C or higher at Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv on April 15, 2026, driven by Israel Meteorological Service forecasts of a sharp heatwave onset with southerly winds advecting hot desert air masses amid mostly sunny skies and light breezes. Observations confirm rapid intensification—21°C on April 13 rising to 27°C on April 14—aligning with model ensembles projecting peaks above seasonal norms of 23–24°C, further adjusted for documented 1°C cold bias in short-range maximum temperature guidance. Current midday readings near 26°C support this trajectory, with heat stress warnings issued for inland valleys. Realistic challenges include an unexpected marine layer intrusion or strengthened sea breeze capping advection, though synoptic patterns favor sustained highs; monitor hourly NOAA data at LLBG for confirmation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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