Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on April 8, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and supporting models projecting daytime highs of 26-27°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. April falls in the dry season at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, where historical averages hover around 26°C, with low precipitation risk (under 10%) and strong diurnal heating from solar radiation elevating afternoon peaks. This positioning reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital, aligning with climatological norms and recent SMN updates showing no disruptive cooler air masses. Realistic challenges include an unexpected northerly wind shift or isolated showers capping temperatures below 26°C, though model ensembles show minimal support for such scenarios; official SMN station observations, typically from Benito Juárez International Airport, will finalize resolution later today.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 8?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 8?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$62,512 Объем
$62,512 Объем
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$62,512 Объем
$62,512 Объем
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on April 8, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and supporting models projecting daytime highs of 26-27°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. April falls in the dry season at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, where historical averages hover around 26°C, with low precipitation risk (under 10%) and strong diurnal heating from solar radiation elevating afternoon peaks. This positioning reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital, aligning with climatological norms and recent SMN updates showing no disruptive cooler air masses. Realistic challenges include an unexpected northerly wind shift or isolated showers capping temperatures below 26°C, though model ensembles show minimal support for such scenarios; official SMN station observations, typically from Benito Juárez International Airport, will finalize resolution later today.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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