**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with solid economic growth and a still-resilient labor market, underpins trader expectations for additional policy tightening by year-end.** The September 16 FOMC meeting delivered the widely anticipated 25 bp hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range, with the median dot plot lifting the 2026 endpoint to 4.1% and signaling one further increase. Recent data have shifted near-term odds: the weak September jobs report (only 29k gains with downward revisions) and softer August PCE print have lowered the implied probability of an October 27–28 hike to roughly 20–28%, favoring a pause. Dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson emphasizing “no urgency” reinforced this repricing. Markets now assign the highest probability to a December hike, aligning with the Hike–Pause–Hike path at 60.5% while leaving room for data surprises to alter the December decision.