**Hawkish FOMC projections after the September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% target range underpin the 60.5% market-implied odds for a Hike–Pause–Hike sequence through year-end.** Persistent inflation above 3%, with September PCE forecasts revised higher to 3.7% headline and 3.4% core, combined with resilient growth and a solid labor market, prompted 16 of 18 participants to signal at least one additional increase by December. Recent data-dependent comments from New York Fed President Williams, noting no urgency for an October move and a preference for assessing incoming figures, have shifted pricing away from back-to-back hikes toward a pause in the near term followed by a December tightening. This path aligns with the median dot plot at 4.1% by year-end while acknowledging uncertainty around inflation persistence and upcoming economic releases before the October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings.