Recent August jobs data showing 162,000 additions and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside persistent PCE inflation near 4% driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, have elevated market-implied odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes at the September 15-16, October 28-29, and December 9 meetings. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC's July hold at 3.50-3.75% featured three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, while the June dot plot indicated at least nine participants expect policy tightening by year-end. This environment of resilient growth, sticky core prices, and reduced forward guidance creates closely matched probabilities across paths, with trader positioning reflecting data dependence ahead of the next CPI release and FOMC decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 28%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза 20%
Повышение–повышение–пауза 13%
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение 10%
$12,762 Объем
$12,762 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение
10%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза
20%
Повышение — Повышение — Повышение
6%
Повышение–повышение–пауза
13%
Пауза–Пауза–Повышение
7%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
28%
Пауза–повышение–повышение
3%
Пауза–повышение–пауза
8%
Другое
7%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 28%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза 20%
Повышение–повышение–пауза 13%
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение 10%
$12,762 Объем
$12,762 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение
$314 Объем
10%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза
$499 Объем
20%
Повышение — Повышение — Повышение
$216 Объем
6%
Повышение–повышение–пауза
$429 Объем
13%
Пауза–Пауза–Повышение
$468 Объем
7%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$10,014 Объем
28%
Пауза–повышение–повышение
$237 Объем
3%
Пауза–повышение–пауза
$336 Объем
8%
Другое
$249 Объем
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent August jobs data showing 162,000 additions and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside persistent PCE inflation near 4% driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, have elevated market-implied odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes at the September 15-16, October 28-29, and December 9 meetings. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC's July hold at 3.50-3.75% featured three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, while the June dot plot indicated at least nine participants expect policy tightening by year-end. This environment of resilient growth, sticky core prices, and reduced forward guidance creates closely matched probabilities across paths, with trader positioning reflecting data dependence ahead of the next CPI release and FOMC decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Объем
$12,762Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent August jobs data showing 162,000 additions and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside persistent PCE inflation near 4% driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, have elevated market-implied odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes at the September 15-16, October 28-29, and December 9 meetings. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC's July hold at 3.50-3.75% featured three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, while the June dot plot indicated at least nine participants expect policy tightening by year-end. This environment of resilient growth, sticky core prices, and reduced forward guidance creates closely matched probabilities across paths, with trader positioning reflecting data dependence ahead of the next CPI release and FOMC decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$12,762Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent August jobs data showing 162,000 additions and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside persistent PCE inflation near 4% driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, have elevated market-implied odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes at the September 15-16, October 28-29, and December 9 meetings. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC's July hold at 3.50-3.75% featured three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, while the June dot plot indicated at least nine participants expect policy tightening by year-end. This environment of resilient growth, sticky core prices, and reduced forward guidance creates closely matched probabilities across paths, with trader positioning reflecting data dependence ahead of the next CPI release and FOMC decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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