Recent data releases and the September FOMC Summary of Economic Projections anchor trader sentiment around the timing of additional tightening through early 2027. Core PCE inflation near 3% year-over-year and a 4.1% unemployment rate support expectations for at least one 25-basis-point hike, yet softer-than-expected August PCE figures have tempered near-term odds and elevated the relative appeal of sequences featuring an October pause. The closely matched probabilities on Pause-Hike-Hike and Pause-Hike-Pause reflect uncertainty over whether the next move arrives in December or January, with October and December employment reports, upcoming CPI prints, and FOMC speeches serving as key swing factors that could shift implied probabilities across the rate path.