Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen lead trader consensus at 38.8% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026 with their UMK-dominating entry "Liekinheitin," a violin-fueled fusion of rock, classical, and dance that crushed national selection voting by nearly triple the runner-up score and tops OGAE fan polls plus Spotify streams. France's Monroe follows at 11.8% as a Big Five direct finalist with jury-favored "Regarde!," drawing heavy bets amid a recent surge despite no qualification risk. Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund holds 10.9% on strong previews and diaspora appeal, while Australia and Greece tie at 6.9% buoyed by jury/televote splits. Yesterday's semi-final running order reveal—Finland slotted advantageously in the first heat—solidifies frontrunner momentum, though upsets loom before Vienna semis on May 12-14.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель Евровидения 2026
Победитель Евровидения 2026
Финляндия 38.8%
Франция 11.8%
Дания 10.9%
Австралия 6.9%
$65,524,110 Объем
$65,524,110 Объем

Финляндия
39%

Франция
12%

Дания
11%

Австралия
7%

Греция
7%

Израиль
4%

Румыния
3%

Швеция
3%

Украина
3%

Италия
3%

Кипр
1%

Чехия
1%

Мальта
1%

Болгария
1%

Хорватия
1%

Люксембург
1%

Молдова
1%

Литва
1%

Германия
<1%

Норвегия
<1%

Швейцария
<1%

Соединённое Королевство
<1%

Албания
<1%

Бельгия
<1%

Армения
<1%

Азербайджан
<1%

Грузия
<1%

Черногория
<1%

Польша
<1%

Сербия
<1%

Австрия
<1%

Эстония
<1%

Латвия
<1%

Португалия
<1%

Сан-Марино
<1%
Финляндия 38.8%
Франция 11.8%
Дания 10.9%
Австралия 6.9%
$65,524,110 Объем
$65,524,110 Объем

Финляндия
39%

Франция
12%

Дания
11%

Австралия
7%

Греция
7%

Израиль
4%

Румыния
3%

Швеция
3%

Украина
3%

Италия
3%

Кипр
1%

Чехия
1%

Мальта
1%

Болгария
1%

Хорватия
1%

Люксембург
1%

Молдова
1%

Литва
1%

Германия
<1%

Норвегия
<1%

Швейцария
<1%

Соединённое Королевство
<1%

Албания
<1%

Бельгия
<1%

Армения
<1%

Азербайджан
<1%

Грузия
<1%

Черногория
<1%

Польша
<1%

Сербия
<1%

Австрия
<1%

Эстония
<1%

Латвия
<1%

Португалия
<1%

Сан-Марино
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen lead trader consensus at 38.8% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026 with their UMK-dominating entry "Liekinheitin," a violin-fueled fusion of rock, classical, and dance that crushed national selection voting by nearly triple the runner-up score and tops OGAE fan polls plus Spotify streams. France's Monroe follows at 11.8% as a Big Five direct finalist with jury-favored "Regarde!," drawing heavy bets amid a recent surge despite no qualification risk. Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund holds 10.9% on strong previews and diaspora appeal, while Australia and Greece tie at 6.9% buoyed by jury/televote splits. Yesterday's semi-final running order reveal—Finland slotted advantageously in the first heat—solidifies frontrunner momentum, though upsets loom before Vienna semis on May 12-14.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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