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Геополитика·трафик

Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив в конце марта?

Market icon
Геополитика·трафик

Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив в конце марта?

мар. 31

апр. 3

апр. 30

мар. 31

апр. 3

апр. 30

0-10 99.6%

10–20 <1%

20-30 <1%

40-50 <1%

Polymarket

$1,587,588 Объем

0-10 99.6%

10–20 <1%

20-30 <1%

40-50 <1%

Polymarket

$1,587,588 Объем

0-10

$478,648 Объем

100%

10–20

$292,391 Объем

<1%

20-30

$120,820 Объем

<1%

30-40

$293,655 Объем

<1%

40-50

$220,888 Объем

<1%

50-60

$88,766 Объем

<1%

60+

$92,419 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed amid escalating US-Iran hostilities and Israeli strikes since early March 2026, has driven average daily ship transits below 10, with Lloyd's List data showing just 181 vessels for the entire month—mostly Iran-linked or select Chinese-flagged. Pre-conflict norms of 130-150 daily crossings collapsed after Iran's vetting system and $2 million passage fees deterred commercial traffic, leaving thousands of vessels stranded and prioritizing shadow fleet operations. Trader consensus at 99.6% for 0-10 reflects verified maritime intelligence through March 31. Reversal would require a diplomatic ceasefire, US-led military clearance, or de-escalation summit, though no such breakthroughs have materialized.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$1,587,588
Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed amid escalating US-Iran hostilities and Israeli strikes since early March 2026, has driven average daily ship transits below 10, with Lloyd's List data showing just 181 vessels for the entire month—mostly Iran-linked or select Chinese-flagged. Pre-conflict norms of 130-150 daily crossings collapsed after Iran's vetting system and $2 million passage fees deterred commercial traffic, leaving thousands of vessels stranded and prioritizing shadow fleet operations. Trader consensus at 99.6% for 0-10 reflects verified maritime intelligence through March 31. Reversal would require a diplomatic ceasefire, US-led military clearance, or de-escalation summit, though no such breakthroughs have materialized.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$1,587,588
Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив в конце марта?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 7 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «0-10» с 100%, за ним следует «10–20» с 0%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив в конце марта?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $1.6 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 9, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив в конце марта?», просмотри 7 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив в конце марта?» — «0-10» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «10–20» с 0%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив в конце марта?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.