Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, closely trailed by 25.5% for 1600–1699.99, reflecting competitive dynamics amid President Milei's fiscal austerity and disinflation progress: September monthly inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.3% in August, with the central bank accumulating over $5 billion in reserves via export taxes and swap lines. This bolsters expectations for a controlled crawling peg depreciation from the current ~985 ARS/USD, though persistent dollar shortages and midterm elections in October 2025 introduce swing risks. Higher brackets gain traction if inflation reaccelerates or IMF funding delays emerge, pricing trader uncertainty over sustained reform momentum versus external pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено<1600,00 31%
1600,00–1699,99 26%
1700,00–1799,99 16.9%
2000,00+ 9.8%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1600,00
34%
1600,00–1699,99
26%
1700,00–1799,99
17%
1800,00–1899,99
19%
1900,00–1999,99
8%
2000,00+
10%
<1600,00 31%
1600,00–1699,99 26%
1700,00–1799,99 16.9%
2000,00+ 9.8%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1600,00
$0 Объем
34%
1600,00–1699,99
$0 Объем
26%
1700,00–1799,99
$0 Объем
17%
1800,00–1899,99
$0 Объем
19%
1900,00–1999,99
$0 Объем
8%
2000,00+
$855 Объем
10%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, closely trailed by 25.5% for 1600–1699.99, reflecting competitive dynamics amid President Milei's fiscal austerity and disinflation progress: September monthly inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.3% in August, with the central bank accumulating over $5 billion in reserves via export taxes and swap lines. This bolsters expectations for a controlled crawling peg depreciation from the current ~985 ARS/USD, though persistent dollar shortages and midterm elections in October 2025 introduce swing risks. Higher brackets gain traction if inflation reaccelerates or IMF funding delays emerge, pricing trader uncertainty over sustained reform momentum versus external pressures.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Объем
$855Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, closely trailed by 25.5% for 1600–1699.99, reflecting competitive dynamics amid President Milei's fiscal austerity and disinflation progress: September monthly inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.3% in August, with the central bank accumulating over $5 billion in reserves via export taxes and swap lines. This bolsters expectations for a controlled crawling peg depreciation from the current ~985 ARS/USD, though persistent dollar shortages and midterm elections in October 2025 introduce swing risks. Higher brackets gain traction if inflation reaccelerates or IMF funding delays emerge, pricing trader uncertainty over sustained reform momentum versus external pressures.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$855Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 34% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, closely trailed by 25.5% for 1600–1699.99, reflecting competitive dynamics amid President Milei's fiscal austerity and disinflation progress: September monthly inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.3% in August, with the central bank accumulating over $5 billion in reserves via export taxes and swap lines. This bolsters expectations for a controlled crawling peg depreciation from the current ~985 ARS/USD, though persistent dollar shortages and midterm elections in October 2025 introduce swing risks. Higher brackets gain traction if inflation reaccelerates or IMF funding delays emerge, pricing trader uncertainty over sustained reform momentum versus external pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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