Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15.8% implied probability, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph under Luis de la Fuente and Lamine Yamal's return to the March squad amid canceled Finalissima preparations against Argentina, signaling a peaking young core with Pedri and Nico Williams. England (12.8%) and France (10.8%) trail closely, the latter boosted by Kylian Mbappé's goal in a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil last week despite a late red card, while defending champions Argentina (9.8%) hold firm atop CONMEBOL standings. The bunched top probabilities underscore the expanded 48-team field's depth, with nearly all contenders qualified via grueling qualifiers, home advantage for hosts USA-Canada-Mexico, and looming UEFA play-off finals that could inject volatility into knockout paths.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИспания 15.8%
Англия 12.8%
Франция 10.8%
Аргентина 9.8%
$410,098,472 Объем
$410,098,472 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
13%
Франция
11%
Аргентина
10%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Италия
2%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
Марокко
2%
США
2%
Япония
1%
Уругвай
1%
Мексика
1%
Хорватия
1%
Швейцария
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Иран
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Испания 15.8%
Англия 12.8%
Франция 10.8%
Аргентина 9.8%
$410,098,472 Объем
$410,098,472 Объем
Испания
16%
Англия
13%
Франция
11%
Аргентина
10%
Бразилия
9%
Португалия
7%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
3%
Италия
2%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
Марокко
2%
США
2%
Япония
1%
Уругвай
1%
Мексика
1%
Хорватия
1%
Швейцария
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Канада
1%
Австрия
1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Иран
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15.8% implied probability, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph under Luis de la Fuente and Lamine Yamal's return to the March squad amid canceled Finalissima preparations against Argentina, signaling a peaking young core with Pedri and Nico Williams. England (12.8%) and France (10.8%) trail closely, the latter boosted by Kylian Mbappé's goal in a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil last week despite a late red card, while defending champions Argentina (9.8%) hold firm atop CONMEBOL standings. The bunched top probabilities underscore the expanded 48-team field's depth, with nearly all contenders qualified via grueling qualifiers, home advantage for hosts USA-Canada-Mexico, and looming UEFA play-off finals that could inject volatility into knockout paths.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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