Trader consensus heavily favors a draw at 74.5% in Wei Yi vs. Hikaru Nakamura at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open Round 4, reflecting the solidity of classical chess among super-grandmasters where risks are minimized early in a double round-robin. Both sit at 1/3 points after Round 3—Nakamura (2810, world #2 seed) with draws against Esipenko and Giri following a Round 1 loss to Caruana, and Wei Yi (2754) with draws versus Bluebaum and Praggnanandhaa before a quick 19-move defeat to Caruana yesterday. Wei Yi's white pieces provide a slight edge, boosting his 19.5% win implied probability over Nakamura's 15%, amid their shared need for a victory without recent head-to-head dominance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

If Yi Wei wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...

If Yi Wei wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a draw at 74.5% in Wei Yi vs. Hikaru Nakamura at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open Round 4, reflecting the solidity of classical chess among super-grandmasters where risks are minimized early in a double round-robin. Both sit at 1/3 points after Round 3—Nakamura (2810, world #2 seed) with draws against Esipenko and Giri following a Round 1 loss to Caruana, and Wei Yi (2754) with draws versus Bluebaum and Praggnanandhaa before a quick 19-move defeat to Caruana yesterday. Wei Yi's white pieces provide a slight edge, boosting his 19.5% win implied probability over Nakamura's 15%, amid their shared need for a victory without recent head-to-head dominance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions